# Will Drake release a new album?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 41% across 12 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/drake-new-album
Updated: 2026-06-08T09:20:10.535Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 41% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $124

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabrina Carpenter | 33¢ | +1pp | $95 | kalshi | /markets/will-sabrina-carpenter-release-a-new-album-in-2026-kalshi-kxalbumrelease-26-sab |
| Before August | 47¢ | −2pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-lil-uzi-vert-release-a-new-album-before-aug-1-kalshi-kxalbumreleasedateuzi-aug01-26 |
| Taylor Swift | 48¢ | −1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-release-a-new-album-in-2026-tayl-kalshi-kxalbumrelease-26-tay |
| Future | 72¢ | +1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-future-release-a-new-album-in-2026-future-kalshi-kxalbumrelease-26-fut |
| Rihanna | 17¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rihanna-release-a-new-album-in-2026-rihanna-kalshi-kxalbumrelease-26-rih |
| PinkPantheress | 54¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pinkpantheress-release-a-new-album-in-2026-pi-kalshi-kxalbumrelease-26-pin |
| Lola Young | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lola-young-release-a-new-album-in-2026-lola-y-kalshi-kxalbumrelease-26-lol |
| Post Malone | 81¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-post-malone-release-a-new-album-in-2026-post-kalshi-kxalbumrelease-26-pos |
| Dua Lipa | 34¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dua-lipa-release-a-new-album-in-2026-dua-lipa-kalshi-kxalbumrelease-26-cua |
| Ice Spice | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ice-spice-release-a-new-album-in-2026-ice-spi-kalshi-kxalbumrelease-26-ice |
| Maroon 5 | 9¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-maroon-5-release-a-new-album-in-2026-maroon-5-kalshi-kxalbumrelease-26-maro |
| Migos | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-migos-release-a-new-album-in-2026-migos-kalshi-kxalbumrelease-26-mig |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 85 |
| 2026-05-25 | 53 |
| 2026-06-01 | 48 |
| 2026-06-08 | 34 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · Before August −5pp 54→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Post Malone −5pp 87→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Before August +4pp 48→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Taylor Swift +4pp 49→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Taylor Swift −4pp 53→49¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/drake-new-album
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=drake-new-album

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.