# Will Indiana have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 12 contracts — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/droughtlevel
Updated: 2026-06-28T21:20:50.568Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-31

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $248

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 30¢ | +7pp | $67 | kalshi | /markets/will-tennessee-have-a-maximum-drought-category-of-kalshi-kxdroughtlevel-26julld4-tn |
| Oregon | 62¢ | −1pp | $62 | kalshi | /markets/will-oregon-have-a-maximum-drought-category-of-at-kalshi-kxdroughtlevel-26julld4-or |
| Minnesota | 15¢ | ±0 | $59 | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-have-a-maximum-drought-category-of-kalshi-kxdroughtlevel-26julld4-mn |
| Kansas | 33¢ | +1pp | $48 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-have-a-maximum-drought-category-of-at-kalshi-kxdroughtlevel-26julld4-ks |
| Arizona | 22¢ | +9pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-have-a-maximum-drought-category-of-at-kalshi-kxdroughtlevel-26julld4-az |
| California | 7¢ | +1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-california-have-a-maximum-drought-category-of-kalshi-kxdroughtlevel-26julld4-ca |
| Missouri | 82¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-missouri-have-a-maximum-drought-category-of-a-kalshi-kxdroughtlevel-26julld4-mo |
| Louisiana | 26¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-louisiana-have-a-maximum-drought-category-of-kalshi-kxdroughtlevel-26julld4-la |
| Iowa | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iowa-have-a-maximum-drought-category-of-at-le-kalshi-kxdroughtlevel-26julld4-ia |
| Virginia | 66¢ | +17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-virginia-have-a-maximum-drought-category-of-a-kalshi-kxdroughtlevel-26julld4-va |
| North Dakota | 12¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-north-dakota-have-a-maximum-drought-category-kalshi-kxdroughtlevel-26julld4-nd |
| Washington | 22¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-have-a-maximum-drought-category-of-kalshi-kxdroughtlevel-26julld4-wa |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 20 |
| 2026-06-14 | 24 |
| 2026-06-21 | 34 |
| 2026-06-28 | 31 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Arizona −22pp 38→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-27 · Virginia +17pp 49→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Virginia −15pp 66→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-27 · Oregon +13pp 50→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Louisiana −13pp 46→33¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract resolves based on whether Indiana experiences a drought category of D4 (severe drought) or worse at any point between June 4 and July 30, 2026. The current 54% probability reflects substantial uncertainty about summer drought conditions in Indiana. Regional drought patterns heavily influence this outcome: the contrast between related contracts shows Oregon at 69% and Kansas at 82%, while Indiana sits in the middle, suggesting analysts view Indiana as moderately exposed but less likely than the Great Plains states. The primary drivers are seasonal precipitation patterns and soil moisture levels through mid-to-late summer. The U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly updates through late July will be critical for tracking actual drought category progression. Current atmospheric conditions in May will establish baseline moisture levels, while June-July rainfall will determine whether conditions deteriorate to D4 severity.

### Key factors

- Indiana's current drought classification as of early June 2026 and baseline soil moisture levels entering the summer period
- Total precipitation received during June and July 2026 relative to historical norms for the region
- Weekly U.S. Drought Monitor classifications released each Thursday, which will track progression toward D4 category
- Comparison to observable drought outcomes in neighboring states (Missouri, Illinois, Ohio) that share similar climate patterns
- Temperature extremes and evapotranspiration rates during June-July, which accelerate drought conditions when combined with below-normal precipitation

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/droughtlevel
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=droughtlevel

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.