# Will Dr. Pepper Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -11%

> Above -15% leads at 94%, runner-up 93% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/drpepperpos
Updated: 2026-08-27T07:21:46.168Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-07

## Headline

- Leader: Above -15% at 94%
- Runner-up: Above -11% at 93%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $229

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -15% | 94¢ | +3pp | $85 | kalshi | /markets/will-dr-pepper-point-of-sale-growth-for-august-202-kalshi-kxdrpepperpos-26sep07-t-15 |
| Above -11% | 93¢ | −1pp | $140 | kalshi | /markets/will-dr-pepper-point-of-sale-growth-for-august-202-kalshi-kxdrpepperpos-26sep07-t-11 |
| Above -7% | 84¢ | +8pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-dr-pepper-point-of-sale-growth-for-august-202-kalshi-kxdrpepperpos-26sep07-t-7 |
| Above -3% | 5¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dr-pepper-point-of-sale-growth-for-august-202-kalshi-kxdrpepperpos-26sep07-t-3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above -15% | Above -11% | Above -7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | 60 | 50 | 36 |
| 2026-08-20 | 88 | 35 | 35 |
| 2026-08-26 | 82 | 90 | 60 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-21 · Above -11% +47pp 35→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Above -7% +44pp 7→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above -7% −18pp 37→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above -7% −12pp 19→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above -3% −11pp 17→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This question asks whether Dr. Pepper's point-of-sale growth in August 2026 will exceed a decline of 11 percent. The 7% probability indicates market participants view this outcome as unlikely, suggesting most expect steeper negative growth or stability closer to -15% or -3% decline. Dr. Pepper's POS performance reflects broader consumer demand, retail inventory decisions, and competitive pressures in the carbonated soft drink category. The current price cluster—with contracts at 48¢ (above -11%), 46¢ (above -7%), and 21¢ (above -3%)—suggests a median expectation around -7% to -11% decline for the month. Resolution depends on actual August sales data release, typically available within 2-3 weeks after month-end. Key drivers include summer promotional activity, competitor pricing, and consumer spending patterns during the period.

### Key factors

- August 2026 POS data release timing and the specific growth rate reported versus the -11% threshold
- Competitive promotional intensity from other soft drink brands during summer peak season
- Consumer spending trends and retail demand signals in carbonated beverages during the measurement period
- Inventory restocking or depletion decisions by major retailers that affect reported POS transactions
- Comparison to Dr. Pepper's historical August performance and year-over-year growth rates

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/drpepperpos
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=drpepperpos

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.