# Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 170000 as reported for December 2026

> Above 140,000 leads at 74%, runner-up 70% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dsamembership
Updated: 2026-09-21T11:20:51.437Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-07

## Headline

- Leader: Above 140,000 at 74%
- Runner-up: Above 130,000 at 70%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 140,000 | 74¢ | +53pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-organization-wide-number-of-democratic-so-kalshi-kxdsamembership-26dec31-a140000 |
| Above 130,000 | 70¢ | −42pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-organization-wide-number-of-democratic-so-kalshi-kxdsamembership-26dec31-a130000 |
| Above 150,000 | 64¢ | +63pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-organization-wide-number-of-democratic-so-kalshi-kxdsamembership-26dec31-a150000 |
| Above 170,000 | 16¢ | −25pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-organization-wide-number-of-democratic-so-kalshi-kxdsamembership-26dec31-a170000 |
| Above 160,000 | 5¢ | −37pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-organization-wide-number-of-democratic-so-kalshi-kxdsamembership-26dec31-a160000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 140,000 | Above 130,000 | Above 150,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 74 | 86 | 62 |
| 2026-09-06 | 74 | 86 | 62 |
| 2026-09-12 | 71 | 81 | 64 |
| 2026-09-18 | 74 | 82 | 64 |
| 2026-09-19 | — | 40 | — |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Above 150,000 −63pp 64→1¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Above 150,000 +63pp 1→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Above 130,000 +58pp 24→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Above 130,000 −57pp 81→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Above 140,000 +53pp 21→74¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents market expectations that the Democratic Socialists of America will report between 130,000 and 170,000 members in good standing by December 2026. The organization's membership has fluctuated significantly in recent years, influenced by political cycles and activism levels. The 91% probability on the 130,000+ threshold suggests strong confidence the organization maintains its current membership base, while the declining probabilities at higher thresholds (36% for 170,000+) reflect uncertainty about sustained growth. The main drivers are retention rates during the 2026 election cycle, recruitment of new members, and overall political engagement in the socialist movement. The key catalyst is the official membership count reported in December 2026, which will definitively resolve all contracts.

### Key factors

- DSA's membership trends in presidential election years, particularly engagement and retention patterns between 2024 and 2026
- Recent historical membership reporting: DSA reported approximately 95,000 members in 2023 and growth trajectories since then
- The gap between the 130,000 floor (91% probability) and 170,000 ceiling (36% probability) reflects substantial uncertainty about growth acceleration in a non-presidential election year
- External political factors including Democratic party dynamics, activist mobilization, and competing socialist organizations' activities
- Timing and accuracy of DSA's official December 2026 membership count as reported to the organization and public

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dsamembership
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dsamembership
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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