# Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 10 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026

> Above 2 leads at 94%, runner-up 86% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 19 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dsawins
Updated: 2026-07-13T08:20:49.523Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Above 2 at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 4 at 86%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $126

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2 | 94¢ | +27pp | $90 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-count-of-candidates-endorsed-by-the-kalshi-kxdsawins-26nov03-a2 |
| Above 4 | 86¢ | −1pp | $36 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-count-of-candidates-endorsed-by-the-kalshi-kxdsawins-26nov03-a4 |
| Above 6 | 45¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-count-of-candidates-endorsed-by-the-kalshi-kxdsawins-26nov03-a6 |
| Above 8 | 23¢ | −15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-count-of-candidates-endorsed-by-the-kalshi-kxdsawins-26nov03-a8 |
| Above 10 | 14¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-count-of-candidates-endorsed-by-the-kalshi-kxdsawins-26nov03-a10 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 2 | Above 4 | Above 6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | 97 | 53 | 67 |
| 2026-06-29 | 76 | 69 | 40 |
| 2026-07-02 | 96 | — | 44 |
| 2026-07-04 | — | 83 | 45 |
| 2026-07-07 | — | 88 | — |
| 2026-07-12 | — | 87 | 45 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-07 · Above 4 +5pp 83→88¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market measures whether Democratic Socialists of America-endorsed candidates will win more than 2 federal primary elections scheduled after June 25, 2026. The 85% probability reflects high confidence in this threshold based on DSA's demonstrated ability to elect members to federal office in recent election cycles. The main driver of this elevated probability is DSA's track record: the organization has successfully backed candidates in House races, particularly in New York and other urban districts with favorable demographics. However, the steep price drop at higher thresholds (35% for above 4, 10% for above 10) suggests meaningful uncertainty about sustained success across multiple races. The decisive factor will be primary results through the fall 2026 election cycle, which will determine whether DSA-backed candidates can achieve wins across diverse geographic and competitive contexts.

### Key factors

- DSA has elected at least 3 members to the U.S. House since 2018 (Ocasio-Cortez, Tlaib, Omar), establishing a baseline of primary-winning capacity
- 2026 primaries occur unevenly across states; outcomes depend on which districts hold competitive races and field DSA-backed challengers
- The organization's endorsement footprint is concentrated in urban districts with specific demographic profiles; expanding beyond these areas historically proves more difficult
- Incumbent protection dynamics in Democratic primaries typically disadvantage outside challengers, limiting opportunities for DSA candidates to unseat sitting members
- Late June scheduling means most federal primaries remain unscheduled; final answer depends entirely on race outcomes across August-September 2026 primary elections

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dsawins
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dsawins
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.