# Will legislation establishing permanent Daylight Saving Time become law before Jan 1, 2028

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 26% across 3 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dst
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:09.731Z
Category: legislation
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 19¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-permanent-daylight-savings-become-law-before-kalshi-kxdst-27jan01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 25¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-establishing-permanent-daylight-s-kalshi-kxdst-27jan01-28 |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-establishing-permanent-daylight-s-kalshi-kxdst-27jan01-29 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 9 |
| 2026-05-19 | 15 |
| 2026-05-22 | 18 |
| 2026-05-29 | 19 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-23 · Before Jan 20, 2029 +8pp 22→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-26 · Before Jan 1, 2028 +6pp 17→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Before Jan 1, 2027 −4pp 20→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-26 · Before Jan 1, 2027 +3pp 17→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-24 · Before Jan 20, 2029 +3pp 30→33¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 19% probability reflects low near-term expectations for federal legislation mandating year-round Daylight Saving Time by early 2028. The current odds suggest market participants view passage as unlikely within this 20-month window, despite recurring legislative interest. Support for permanent DST has existed across multiple Congressional sessions, but bills have consistently stalled due to disagreement over whether to lock in standard time or daylight time, and competing interests from agriculture, broadcast media, and health advocates. The main factors that could shift this probability are a sudden shift in congressional priorities or a high-profile push by a new administration. The period immediately following any 2026 midterm elections and the first 100 days of potential 2028 presidential administration represent key moments when legislative calendar space might open.

### Key factors

- Previous federal DST legislation (Energy Policy Act of 2005) required 6+ years of development before passage, establishing a slow historical baseline
- Current Congressional gridlock and competing state-level time zone experiments reduce federal legislative bandwidth
- Major stakeholder opposition from agricultural and broadcast sectors has blocked bills in prior sessions despite bipartisan language
- No scheduled federal vote or committee markup is currently calendared for this issue as of May 2026
- The 2028 presidential election cycle typically constrains legislative movement on non-emergency issues in the latter half of 2027

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dst
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dst

## License

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