# Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 62 million daily active users in fiscal 2026

> Above 60.5 million leads at 85%, runner-up 81% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/duola
Updated: 2026-08-10T15:20:49.621Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-27

## Headline

- Leader: Above 60.5 million at 85%
- Runner-up: Above 13.4 million at 81%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $21

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 60.5 million | 85¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duolingo-inc-report-above-605-million-daily-a-kalshi-kxduola-27febdau-60500000.0 |
| Above 13.4 million | 81¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duolingo-inc-report-above-134-million-paid-su-kalshi-kxduola-27febpaidsubs-13400000.0 |
| Above 61 million | 79¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duolingo-inc-report-above-61-million-daily-ac-kalshi-kxduola-27febdau-61000000.0 |
| Above 61.5 million | 77¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duolingo-inc-report-above-615-million-daily-a-kalshi-kxduola-27febdau-61500000.0 |
| Above 62 million | 73¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duolingo-inc-report-above-62-million-daily-ac-kalshi-kxduola-27febdau-62000000.0 |
| Above 62.5 million | 67¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duolingo-inc-report-above-625-million-daily-a-kalshi-kxduola-27febdau-62500000.0 |
| Above 13.6 million | 64¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duolingo-inc-report-above-136-million-paid-su-kalshi-kxduola-27febpaidsubs-13600000.0 |
| Above 63 million | 59¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duolingo-inc-report-above-63-million-daily-ac-kalshi-kxduola-27febdau-63000000.0 |
| Above 63.5 million | 50¢ | +1pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-duolingo-inc-report-above-635-million-daily-a-kalshi-kxduola-27febdau-63500000.0 |
| Above 64 million | 41¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-duolingo-inc-report-above-64-million-daily-ac-kalshi-kxduola-27febdau-64000000.0 |
| Above 64.5 million | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duolingo-inc-report-above-645-million-daily-a-kalshi-kxduola-27febdau-64500000.0 |
| Above 65 million | 23¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duolingo-inc-report-above-65-million-daily-ac-kalshi-kxduola-27febdau-65000000.0 |
| Above 65.5 million | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duolingo-inc-report-above-655-million-daily-a-kalshi-kxduola-27febdau-65500000.0 |
| Above 66 million | 14¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duolingo-inc-report-above-66-million-daily-ac-kalshi-kxduola-27febdau-66000000.0 |
| Above 66.5 million | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duolingo-inc-report-above-665-million-daily-a-kalshi-kxduola-27febdau-66500000.0 |
| Above 67 million | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duolingo-inc-report-above-67-million-daily-ac-kalshi-kxduola-27febdau-67000000.0 |
| Above 67.5 million | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duolingo-inc-report-above-675-million-daily-a-kalshi-kxduola-27febdau-67500000.0 |
| Above 68 million | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duolingo-inc-report-above-68-million-daily-ac-kalshi-kxduola-27febdau-68000000.0 |
| Above 68.5 million | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duolingo-inc-report-above-685-million-daily-a-kalshi-kxduola-27febdau-68500000.0 |
| Above 69 million | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duolingo-inc-report-above-69-million-daily-ac-kalshi-kxduola-27febdau-69000000.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 60.5 million | Above 13.4 million | Above 61 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 55 | 49 | 52 |
| 2026-08-03 | — | 80 | 69 |
| 2026-08-05 | 83 | 81 | 75 |
| 2026-08-09 | 85 | 81 | 79 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-05 · Above 61 million +5pp 70→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 61.5 million +5pp 67→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 62 million +5pp 62→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Above 62 million +5pp 67→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 62.5 million +5pp 56→61¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market is pricing an 81% probability that Duolingo will report at least 60.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026, reflecting trader expectations that user growth will remain strong but not accelerate dramatically. The company has grown its DAU base consistently through product improvements and marketing, though growth rates naturally moderate at scale. Traders are pricing in sustained usage patterns during a period when language-learning apps face ongoing competition. The key uncertainty is whether user retention holds steady and whether new geographic or demographic expansion drives incremental growth. The outcome will be determined when Duolingo reports its FY2026 financial results, likely in early 2027, at which point actual DAU figures will settle all related contracts. The spread across contracts—from 6% probability above 68 million to 81% above 60.5 million—suggests traders see meaningful uncertainty above the 62-million threshold, with a concentration of probability in the 60–62 million range.

### Key factors

- Duolingo's reported DAU figures for the past three quarters, compared to fiscal 2025 end-of-year baseline, will indicate whether the growth trajectory supports 60.5+ million by fiscal year-end 2026
- User retention and engagement metrics (session length, monthly active to daily active ratio) from competitor reports and industry surveys can reveal whether market saturation or churn pressures are intensifying
- Duolingo's capital allocation decisions and marketing spend efficiency in H2 2026 directly influence whether DAU growth accelerates, plateaus, or declines toward year-end
- Geographic expansion announcements or product launches (e.g., new language offerings or feature rollouts) typically precede or accompany material DAU changes
- The company's year-over-year DAU growth rate in Q2/Q3 2026 earnings reports will be the most direct leading indicator of whether 62 million DAU is reachable by FY2026 close

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/duola
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=duola

## License

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