# Will Madison Chock perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 16% across 19 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dwtscast
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.173Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-01

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $640

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Olson | 46¢ | +7pp | $640 | kalshi | /markets/will-jackson-olson-perform-as-an-official-contesta-kalshi-kxdwtscast-26oct01-jac |
| Amber Glenn | 30¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-amber-glenn-perform-as-an-official-contestant-kalshi-kxdwtscast-26oct01-amb |
| Madison Chock | 12¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-madison-chock-perform-as-an-official-contesta-kalshi-kxdwtscast-26oct01-mad |
| Evan Bates | 8¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-evan-bates-perform-as-an-official-contestant-kalshi-kxdwtscast-26oct01-eva |
| Ilia Malinin | 28¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ilia-malinin-perform-as-an-official-contestan-kalshi-kxdwtscast-26oct01-ili |
| Mikaela Shiffrin | 12¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mikaela-shiffrin-perform-as-an-official-conte-kalshi-kxdwtscast-26oct01-mik |
| Chloe Kim | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chloe-kim-perform-as-an-official-contestant-i-kalshi-kxdwtscast-26oct01-chl |
| Jordan Stolz | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jordan-stolz-perform-as-an-official-contestan-kalshi-kxdwtscast-26oct01-jor |
| Nic Vansteenberghe | 16¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nic-vansteenberghe-perform-as-an-official-con-kalshi-kxdwtscast-26oct01-nic |
| Brittany Cartwright | 15¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brittany-cartwright-perform-as-an-official-co-kalshi-kxdwtscast-26oct01-bri |
| Donna Kelce | 19¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donna-kelce-perform-as-an-official-contestant-kalshi-kxdwtscast-26oct01-don |
| Gia Giudice | 12¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gia-giudice-perform-as-an-official-contestant-kalshi-kxdwtscast-26oct01-gia |
| Jenna Dewan | 14¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jenna-dewan-perform-as-an-official-contestant-kalshi-kxdwtscast-26oct01-jen |
| Ginnifer Goodwin | 10¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ginnifer-goodwin-perform-as-an-official-conte-kalshi-kxdwtscast-26oct01-gin |
| Bart Johnson | 30¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bart-johnson-perform-as-an-official-contestan-kalshi-kxdwtscast-26oct01-bar |
| Tyler Hynes | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tyler-hynes-perform-as-an-official-contestant-kalshi-kxdwtscast-26oct01-tyl |
| Taylor Lautner | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-lautner-perform-as-an-official-contest-kalshi-kxdwtscast-26oct01-tay |
| Rob Gronkowski | 10¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rob-gronkowski-perform-as-an-official-contest-kalshi-kxdwtscast-26oct01-rob |
| Cam Newton | 24¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cam-newton-perform-as-an-official-contestant-kalshi-kxdwtscast-26oct01-cam |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 2 |
| 2026-05-01 | 5 |
| 2026-05-08 | 20 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Jackson Olson +18pp 4→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Amber Glenn +18pp 5→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Ilia Malinin +16pp 5→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Bart Johnson +16pp 5→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Cam Newton +12pp 5→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 6% chance that Madison Chock, a professional ice dancer, will compete as a contestant on Dancing with the Stars Season 35. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether ABC will cast her in the upcoming season. Key factors include whether producers select athletes from winter sports for the casting roster, Madison Chock's availability and interest in participating, and how the show's typical contestant pool is structured. The casting announcement—expected before the season's premiere—would definitively resolve this question. Until then, the low probability suggests market participants view her selection as unlikely relative to other potential contestants, though not impossible given the show's occasional recruitment of Olympic or professional athletes.

### Key factors

- Madison Chock's professional ice dancing career and Olympic visibility may make her appealing to producers seeking established athletes, but no public indication exists that she has been approached or expressed interest
- Dancing with the Stars Season 35 casting announcements typically occur 1-3 months before the premiere, which would provide the primary catalyst for resolution
- Comparable probability levels for other potential contestants (Amber Glenn 6%, Bow Wow 6%, Cam Newton 6%) suggest this represents a baseline threshold for speculative or lower-likelihood casting choices
- The show's historical tendency to cast celebrities with existing fan bases or media profiles rather than purely athletic credentials may work against selection of niche sports figures
- Official contestant rosters are publicly announced by ABC and major entertainment outlets, making this a fully resolvable binary event

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dwtscast

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