# Will Amber Glenn finish 3rd Place on Dancing with the Stars Season 35

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 14 contracts — refreshed 29 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dwtsrank
Updated: 2026-09-24T03:20:51.467Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezra Frech | 12¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-ezra-frech-finish-3rd-place-on-dancing-with-t-kalshi-kxdwtsrank-326dec31-efre |
| Amber Glenn | 7¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-amber-glenn-finish-2nd-place-on-dancing-with-kalshi-kxdwtsrank-226dec31-agle |
| Harry Shum Jr. | 16¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-harry-shum-jr-finish-2nd-place-on-dancing-wit-kalshi-kxdwtsrank-226dec31-hshu |
| Ezra Frech | 12¢ | −21pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-ezra-frech-finish-2nd-place-on-dancing-with-t-kalshi-kxdwtsrank-226dec31-efre |
| Maura Higgins | 22¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-maura-higgins-finish-2nd-place-on-dancing-wit-kalshi-kxdwtsrank-226dec31-mhig |
| Maura Higgins | 15¢ | +6pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-maura-higgins-finish-3rd-place-on-dancing-wit-kalshi-kxdwtsrank-326dec31-mhig |
| Jackson Olson | 7¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-jackson-olson-finish-3rd-place-on-dancing-wit-kalshi-kxdwtsrank-326dec31-jols |
| Julia Stiles | 7¢ | +4pp | $562 | kalshi | /markets/will-julia-stiles-finish-2nd-place-on-dancing-with-kalshi-kxdwtsrank-226dec31-jstil |
| Connor Wood | 5¢ | +1pp | $519 | kalshi | /markets/will-connor-wood-finish-2nd-place-on-dancing-with-kalshi-kxdwtsrank-226dec31-cwoo |
| Jenna Dewan | 25¢ | +10pp | $356 | kalshi | /markets/will-jenna-dewan-finish-2nd-place-on-dancing-with-kalshi-kxdwtsrank-226dec31-jdew |
| Taylor Hanson | 3¢ | +1pp | $334 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-hanson-finish-3rd-place-on-dancing-wit-kalshi-kxdwtsrank-326dec31-than |
| Amber Glenn | 10¢ | +4pp | $308 | kalshi | /markets/will-amber-glenn-finish-3rd-place-on-dancing-with-kalshi-kxdwtsrank-326dec31-agle |
| Connor Wood | 8¢ | +8pp | $251 | kalshi | /markets/will-connor-wood-finish-3rd-place-on-dancing-with-kalshi-kxdwtsrank-326dec31-cwoo |
| Harry Shum Jr. | 14¢ | +9pp | $222 | kalshi | /markets/will-harry-shum-jr-finish-3rd-place-on-dancing-wit-kalshi-kxdwtsrank-326dec31-hshu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | 13 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Ezra Frech +26pp 3→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Ezra Frech −21pp 29→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Maura Higgins +10pp 3→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Jenna Dewan +10pp 8→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Harry Shum Jr. +9pp 5→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the likelihood that Amber Glenn finishes in exactly third place on Dancing with the Stars Season 35. The 3% probability reflects that third-place finishes are relatively rare outcomes in a competition with multiple possible finishing positions, and Amber Glenn competes against other cast members for the top spots. The resolution will be determined by the final results of the season's elimination voting and judge scores, which typically concludes in late November or early December 2026. Key factors affecting this probability include Glenn's performance consistency throughout the season, audience voting patterns, judge scoring tendencies, the overall skill distribution among other contestants, and whether any elimination shocks reshape the expected top-three finishers.

### Key factors

- Amber Glenn's dance skill level and performance trajectory relative to other Season 35 contestants
- Historical Dancing with the Stars voting patterns and whether they correlate with judge scores or audience preference
- The typical placement distribution for celebrities in third place versus other finishing positions across recent DWTS seasons
- Potential early eliminations or unexpected departures that would alter the pool of likely finalists
- Season 35 finale date and final elimination results scheduled for approximately November-December 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dwtsrank
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=dwtsrank

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