# Will Julia Stiles finish in the Top 3 on Dancing with the Stars Season 35

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 28% across 12 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dwtstop3
Updated: 2026-09-21T21:20:50.538Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 28% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $336

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maura Higgins | 64¢ | +4pp | $189 | kalshi | /markets/will-maura-higgins-finish-in-the-top-3-on-dancing-kalshi-kxdwtstop3-26dec31-mhig |
| Taylor Hanson | 11¢ | +1pp | $54 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-hanson-finish-in-the-top-3-on-dancing-kalshi-kxdwtstop3-26dec31-than |
| Jenna Dewan | 60¢ | +16pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-jenna-dewan-finish-in-the-top-3-on-dancing-wi-kalshi-kxdwtstop3-26dec31-jdew |
| Julia Stiles | 22¢ | +1pp | $26 | kalshi | /markets/will-julia-stiles-finish-in-the-top-3-on-dancing-w-kalshi-kxdwtstop3-26dec31-jstil |
| Harry Shum Jr. | 59¢ | +11pp | $22 | kalshi | /markets/will-harry-shum-jr-finish-in-the-top-3-on-dancing-kalshi-kxdwtstop3-26dec31-hshu |
| Tatyana Ali | 5¢ | −2pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-tatyana-ali-finish-in-the-top-3-on-dancing-wi-kalshi-kxdwtstop3-26dec31-tat |
| Ezra Frech | 35¢ | +1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-ezra-frech-finish-in-the-top-3-on-dancing-wit-kalshi-kxdwtstop3-26dec31-efre |
| Connor Wood | 19¢ | +9pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-connor-wood-finish-in-the-top-3-on-dancing-wi-kalshi-kxdwtstop3-26dec31-cwoo |
| Amber Glenn | 27¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-amber-glenn-finish-in-the-top-3-on-dancing-wi-kalshi-kxdwtstop3-26dec31-agle |
| Tyler Cameron | 13¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tyler-cameron-finish-in-the-top-3-on-dancing-kalshi-kxdwtstop3-26dec31-tcam |
| Ciara Miller | 8¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ciara-miller-finish-in-the-top-3-on-dancing-w-kalshi-kxdwtstop3-26dec31-cmil |
| Jackson Olson | 16¢ | −13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jackson-olson-finish-in-the-top-3-on-dancing-kalshi-kxdwtstop3-26dec31-jols |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | 28 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Maura Higgins +46pp 13→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Harry Shum Jr. +28pp 17→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Jackson Olson +21pp 8→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Jenna Dewan +20pp 26→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Jenna Dewan +16pp 46→62¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 3% chance that Julia Stiles finishes in the top three of Dancing with the Stars Season 35. The probability reflects that Stiles, while an accomplished actor known for roles in films like the Bourne series, lacks a public background in ballroom or competitive dance. Markets typically assign low probabilities to celebrity contestants without prior dance experience, though the outcome depends on her actual performance once the season begins and judges' scores accumulate. The main resolution event is the airing of Season 35 episodes and the announcement of finalists, which will definitively show whether Stiles advances through elimination rounds to reach the top three. Factors pushing this probability upward would include exceptional natural dance ability or strong early judge feedback; factors pushing it lower would include early elimination or consistently lower scores compared to other contestants.

### Key factors

- Julia Stiles has no publicly documented competitive dance background, whereas top finishers typically either have prior experience or demonstrate rapid improvement
- The aggregate market pricing her at 3% suggests similar odds to multiple other contestants, indicating broad uncertainty rather than strong differentiation against her
- Season 35 has not yet aired as of early September 2026, meaning actual performance data and judge scores are unavailable
- Elimination in Dancing with the Stars is determined by combined judge scores and audience voting, both of which remain unknown until episodes air
- Her casting as an established film actor with substantial prior career commitments may create scheduling or preparation disadvantages compared to contestants with more available training time

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/dwtstop3
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