# What will Air Canada say during their next earnings call

> Iran / Middle East leads at 87%, runner-up 79% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionac
Updated: 2026-08-09T23:20:51.906Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Iran / Middle East at 87%
- Runner-up: Airbus at 79%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $17K

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran / Middle East | 87¢ | +3pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-air-canada-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionac-26aug12-iran |
| Airbus | 79¢ | +4pp | $85 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-air-canada-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionac-26aug12-airb |
| Weather | 70¢ | +3pp | $936 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-air-canada-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionac-26aug12-weat |
| Headwind | 64¢ | +2pp | $67 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-air-canada-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionac-26aug12-head |
| Tailwind | 62¢ | +2pp | $859 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-air-canada-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionac-26aug12-tail |
| Inflation | 52¢ | +1pp | $190 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-air-canada-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionac-26aug12-infl |
| World Cup | 44¢ | −4pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-air-canada-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionac-26aug12-worl |
| Cuba / Cuban | 40¢ | −2pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-air-canada-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionac-26aug12-cuba |
| Tariff | 21¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-air-canada-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionac-26aug12-tari |
| A350 | 21¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-air-canada-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionac-26aug12-a350 |
| LaGuardia | 18¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-air-canada-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionac-26aug12-lagu |
| License / Licensed | 10¢ | −4pp | $312 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-air-canada-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionac-26aug12-lice |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Iran / Middle East | Airbus | Weather |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | 53 | 44 | 50 |
| 2026-07-25 | 72 | 72 | 43 |
| 2026-07-26 | 71 | 71 | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 72 | 76 | 16 |
| 2026-08-02 | 72 | — | 17 |
| 2026-08-08 | 81 | 72 | 43 |
| 2026-08-09 | 84 | 76 | — |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-04 · Airbus −31pp 76→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Headwind +22pp 38→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Tailwind −15pp 58→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Airbus +15pp 51→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Weather +10pp 22→32¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates the market expects Air Canada to mention Airbus during their next earnings call with 82% confidence. Air Canada's substantial fleet modernization initiatives and ongoing aircraft procurement decisions with Airbus make equipment discussions likely during investor updates. The leading 82% probability reflects Airbus's significance as a major supplier to the airline. An earnings call typically covers capital expenditure plans, fleet composition, and procurement timelines—topics where Airbus involvement would naturally surface. The main factors pushing this higher or lower would be whether Air Canada has recent aircraft delivery milestones, new orders to announce, or maintenance/operational issues requiring discussion. The resolution depends entirely on the content of Air Canada's next quarterly or annual earnings call, which will be publicly available and verifiable through the company's published transcript.

### Key factors

- Air Canada's recent fleet composition and modernization strategy, including existing Airbus aircraft orders and delivery schedules
- Timing of the earnings call relative to major aviation industry announcements or Air Canada's capital allocation announcements
- Competitive pressures and fuel efficiency discussions that would typically reference specific aircraft models like Airbus platforms
- Whether Air Canada has announced new Airbus orders, groundings, or delivery deferrals that would warrant earnings call commentary
- Historical frequency of aircraft supplier mentions in Air Canada's previous earnings call transcripts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionac
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=earningsmentionac

## License

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