# What will Alaska Air Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call

> Closed. Final outcome: no. Last odds frozen 5 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionalk
Updated: 2026-07-23T13:20:51.316Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Oil at 7%
- Runner-up: AI / Artificial Intelligence at 5%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $42K
- Resolved: no

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil | 7¢ | −6pp | $17K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-alaska-air-group-inc-say-during-their-ne-kalshi-kxearningsmentionalk-26jul22-oil |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 5¢ | −2pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-alaska-air-group-inc-say-during-their-ne-kalshi-kxearningsmentionalk-26jul22-ai |
| Iran / Middle East | 4¢ | −2pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-alaska-air-group-inc-say-during-their-ne-kalshi-kxearningsmentionalk-26jul22-iran |
| Tariff | 4¢ | −6pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-alaska-air-group-inc-say-during-their-ne-kalshi-kxearningsmentionalk-26jul22-tari |
| Iceland | 3¢ | +2pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-alaska-air-group-inc-say-during-their-ne-kalshi-kxearningsmentionalk-26jul22-icel |
| New Zealand | 3¢ | −6pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-alaska-air-group-inc-say-during-their-ne-kalshi-kxearningsmentionalk-26jul22-new |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Oil | AI / Artificial Intelligence | Iran / Middle East |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 2026-07-19 | 43 | 28 | 17 |
| 2026-07-20 | 37 | 19 | 12 |
| 2026-07-21 | 49 | 22 | 18 |
| 2026-07-22 | 43 | 20 | 16 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-21 · Oil +12pp 37→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-22 · Oil −6pp 49→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-21 · Iran / Middle East +6pp 12→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-22 · Tariff −6pp 12→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-21 · Iceland −6pp 18→12¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Alaska Air Group will mention Boeing during their next earnings call. At 87%, the market assigns high confidence to this outcome, likely driven by Alaska Air's substantial fleet of Boeing aircraft and ongoing industry discussions around aircraft delivery timelines and supply chain issues. The probability could shift if Alaska Air's operational focus shifts dramatically toward other concerns like fuel costs (Oil at 67%) or if Boeing-related developments become less relevant to their business narrative. The next earnings call date will resolve this question, at which point participants can verify whether Boeing was indeed discussed and how prominently.

### Key factors

- Alaska Air Group operates one of the largest Boeing 737 fleets in commercial aviation, making aircraft performance and delivery schedules material to earnings discussions
- Oil futures at 67¢ suggest meaningful market uncertainty about whether fuel costs will dominate the earnings narrative instead of Boeing-specific topics
- AI/Artificial Intelligence at 47¢ indicates some belief Alaska Air may discuss technology investments, though this remains a minority expectation
- The 87% leader price suggests strong consensus but with meaningful minority positions (runner-up at 81%), indicating real disagreement among participants
- 24h trading volume concentration ($81 on Boeing vs $416 on Iceland) shows uneven conviction across outcomes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionalk
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=earningsmentionalk

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