# What will Bank of America Corporation say during their next earnings call

> Inflation leads at 87%, runner-up 86% across 16 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionbac
Updated: 2026-07-13T01:20:51.116Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Inflation at 87%
- Runner-up: Delinquency at 86%
- Outcomes: 16 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 87¢ | −17pp | $152 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-bank-of-america-corporation-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentionbac-26jul14-infl |
| Delinquency | 86¢ | ±0 | $1 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-bank-of-america-corporation-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentionbac-26jul14-deli |
| Merrill | 86¢ | ±0 | $1 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-bank-of-america-corporation-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentionbac-26jul14-merr |
| Rate Cut / Cut Rate | 75¢ | +6pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-bank-of-america-corporation-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentionbac-26jul14-rate |
| Pipeline | 71¢ | ±0 | $8 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-bank-of-america-corporation-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentionbac-26jul14-pipe |
| Basel 3 | 69¢ | +6pp | $52 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-bank-of-america-corporation-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentionbac-26jul14-base |
| Buyback | 64¢ | +17pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-bank-of-america-corporation-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentionbac-26jul14-buyb |
| M&A / Merger | 60¢ | +20pp | $390 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-bank-of-america-corporation-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentionbac-26jul14-ma |
| Tariff | 54¢ | −1pp | $204 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-bank-of-america-corporation-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentionbac-26jul14-tari |
| CashPro | 54¢ | ±0 | $62 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-bank-of-america-corporation-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentionbac-26jul14-cash |
| World Cup | 52¢ | −3pp | $225 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-bank-of-america-corporation-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentionbac-26jul14-worl |
| Hike | 43¢ | +6pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-bank-of-america-corporation-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentionbac-26jul14-hike |
| Trump / President | 32¢ | −4pp | $97 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-bank-of-america-corporation-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentionbac-26jul14-trum |
| Recession | 25¢ | ±0 | $62 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-bank-of-america-corporation-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentionbac-26jul14-rece |
| Iran | 4¢ | ±0 | $121 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-bank-of-america-corporation-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentionbac-26jul14-iran |
| Oil | 4¢ | −3pp | $63 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-bank-of-america-corporation-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentionbac-26jul14-oil |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Inflation | Delinquency | Merrill |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | 78 | 59 | 77 |
| 2026-07-06 | 75 | 80 | 81 |
| 2026-07-10 | 73 | 81 | 83 |
| 2026-07-11 | 56 | — | — |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-07 · Buyback +26pp 21→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Buyback −24pp 48→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · M&A / Merger +20pp 51→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Inflation −17pp 73→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Buyback +17pp 30→47¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Bank of America will mention Merrill Lynch or wealth management during their next earnings call. The 88% price suggests traders view such a reference as highly likely given the company's reliance on wealth management revenues and Merrill's strategic importance. Movement in this contract would depend on whether BofA's prepared remarks or Q&A actually include substantive discussion of Merrill operations, client flows, or advisory revenue. The main uncertainty lies in call timing and content emphasis—management may prioritize different business segments depending on quarterly performance. Resolution will occur when BofA releases earnings and hosts their earnings call, typically within the next 45–60 days. Competing outcomes like discussions of geopolitical factors (Iran, Trump) or macroeconomic trends (interest rate hikes, oil markets) trade at much lower probabilities, reflecting lower expectations of material focus on those topics during a corporate earnings context.

### Key factors

- Bank of America's wealth management division (which includes Merrill) represents 35–40% of consolidated net revenues and is typically highlighted in earnings discussions
- The current contract prices show high concentration in Merrill (88%) versus geopolitical or macro themes (10–15%), indicating market confidence in standard earnings-call content patterns
- Earnings call timing and actual date of BofA's next call remains the primary resolution catalyst; typical earnings calls occur 3–5 weeks after quarter-end
- Recent market volatility or client activity metrics could shift which business segment receives emphasis, potentially altering probability
- Management's forward guidance and capital deployment plans around wealth management advisory services directly influence likelihood of substantive Merrill discussion

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionbac
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=earningsmentionbac

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