# What will Costco Wholesale Corporation say during their next earnings call

> Renewal leads at 97%, runner-up 95% across 17 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentioncost
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.163Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-30

## Headline

- Leader: Renewal at 97%
- Runner-up: Tariff at 95%
- Outcomes: 17 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $17K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renewal | 97¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-costco-wholesale-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentioncost-26may28-renw |
| Tariff | 95¢ | +3pp | $963 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-costco-wholesale-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentioncost-26may28-tarf |
| Kirkland | 95¢ | +3pp | $466 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-costco-wholesale-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentioncost-26may28-kirk |
| Inflation | 93¢ | −4pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-costco-wholesale-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentioncost-26may28-infl |
| Inventory | 88¢ | +3pp | $193 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-costco-wholesale-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentioncost-26may28-inve |
| Expansion | 81¢ | ±0 | $149 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-costco-wholesale-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentioncost-26may28-expn |
| Revenue | 66¢ | −2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-costco-wholesale-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentioncost-26may28-rev |
| Instacart | 63¢ | ±0 | $949 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-costco-wholesale-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentioncost-26may28-inst |
| Labor | 53¢ | +3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-costco-wholesale-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentioncost-26may28-labr |
| Spending | 43¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-costco-wholesale-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentioncost-26may28-spen |
| Dividend | 40¢ | −10pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-costco-wholesale-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentioncost-26may28-divd |
| Hot Dog | 38¢ | +5pp | $928 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-costco-wholesale-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentioncost-26may28-hot |
| Cannibalization | 27¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-costco-wholesale-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentioncost-26may28-cann |
| Holiday | 22¢ | +5pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-costco-wholesale-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentioncost-26may28-holi |
| Gold Bar | 10¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-costco-wholesale-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentioncost-26may28-gold |
| Valuation | 6¢ | −3pp | $473 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-costco-wholesale-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentioncost-26may28-valu |
| Automation | 3¢ | −1pp | $318 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-costco-wholesale-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentioncost-26may28-auto |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Renewal | Tariff | Kirkland |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 97 | 86 | 86 |
| 2026-05-27 | 96 | 91 | 90 |
| 2026-05-28 | — | 94 | 93 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · Hot Dog +25pp 18→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Revenue −12pp 79→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Holiday +11pp 13→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Dividend −10pp 49→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Instacart +10pp 64→74¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Costco will discuss membership renewals during their next earnings call. The 97% price suggests high confidence this topic will be mentioned, likely reflecting Costco's historical pattern of addressing renewal rates and membership trends as key business metrics. Two factors drive this level: first, renewal rates are a primary driver of Costco's recurring revenue model and investor interest; second, the recent contract volumes and pricing show meaningful disagreement about what else gets discussed (inflation at 90¢, revenue at 73¢), indicating uncertainty remains about which secondary topics dominate. The earnings call itself—currently scheduled for late June 2026—will definitively resolve whether renewal language appears in management commentary or investor Q&A. Historical precedent suggests Costco regularly discusses membership metrics, but execution details and emphasis vary by quarter depending on business conditions.

### Key factors

- Costco's business model ties membership renewals directly to revenue stability and cash flow, making it a standard discussion point management addresses on earnings calls
- The 97% probability reflects high historical frequency rather than certainty; 3% pricing indicates some scenarios where renewals receive minimal mention or get overshadowed by other topics
- Secondary contracts (inflation 90¢, revenue 73¢) show material uncertainty about what topics compete for management attention during the call
- Trading volume and bid-ask spreads suggest moderate liquidity and modest disagreement among participants on renewal discussion likelihood
- The actual earnings call date and timing relative to quarterly results will determine resolution; delayed reporting or format changes could affect whether management explicitly addresses renewals

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentioncost
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=earningsmentioncost

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.