# What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call

> Closed. Last odds frozen 3 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionduol
Updated: 2026-08-06T13:20:52.476Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Asia at 90%
- Runner-up: Tutor at 53%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $16K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 90¢ | +4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-duolingo-inc-say-during-their-next-earni-kalshi-kxearningsmentionduol-26aug05-asia |
| Tutor | 53¢ | −4pp | $451 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-duolingo-inc-say-during-their-next-earni-kalshi-kxearningsmentionduol-26aug05-tuto |
| Speaking Adventure | 44¢ | +13pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-duolingo-inc-say-during-their-next-earni-kalshi-kxearningsmentionduol-26aug05-speak |
| 100 Million | 36¢ | +11pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-duolingo-inc-say-during-their-next-earni-kalshi-kxearningsmentionduol-26aug05-100 |
| Luckin Coffee | 32¢ | −7pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-duolingo-inc-say-during-their-next-earni-kalshi-kxearningsmentionduol-26aug05-luck |
| ChatGPT | 28¢ | −13pp | $108 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-duolingo-inc-say-during-their-next-earni-kalshi-kxearningsmentionduol-26aug05-chat |
| McDonald's | 22¢ | +3pp | $944 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-duolingo-inc-say-during-their-next-earni-kalshi-kxearningsmentionduol-26aug05-mcdo |
| LinkedIn | 15¢ | +2pp | $585 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-duolingo-inc-say-during-their-next-earni-kalshi-kxearningsmentionduol-26aug05-link |
| Flashcard | 15¢ | −12pp | $470 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-duolingo-inc-say-during-their-next-earni-kalshi-kxearningsmentionduol-26aug05-flas |
| Spotify | 5¢ | −14pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-duolingo-inc-say-during-their-next-earni-kalshi-kxearningsmentionduol-26aug05-spot |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Asia | Tutor | Speaking Adventure |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | 32 | 39 | 20 |
| 2026-08-02 | 63 | 58 | 17 |
| 2026-08-03 | 65 | — | 26 |
| 2026-08-05 | 69 | 55 | 30 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-05 · Spotify −14pp 35→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Speaking Adventure +13pp 17→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · ChatGPT −13pp 34→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Flashcard −12pp 29→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · 100 Million +11pp 39→50¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability measures traders' expectation that Duolingo will discuss chess features during their next earnings call, currently priced at 66%. The high confidence reflects chess's recent prominence in the company's product roadmap and marketing strategy. Market traders are weighing whether chess will be mentioned as a strategic initiative against the possibility that the company discusses other feature developments or business priorities instead. The primary catalyst is Duolingo's next scheduled earnings call, when management will provide guidance on recent product launches and user engagement metrics. Key resolution drivers include the company's emphasis on gamification features, competitive positioning against other language platforms, and whether chess maintains sufficient user adoption to warrant executive-level discussion.

### Key factors

- Chess was launched or significantly promoted as a Duolingo feature recently, making it a plausible earnings-call topic given typical executive commentary on new products
- The 66% probability places chess discussion as the most likely single outcome among 14 distinct contract options, suggesting meaningful but not overwhelming trader conviction
- Trading volume on the Chess contract ($238 in 24-hour volume) is higher than several runner-up outcomes but lower than Free Trial ($511), indicating mixed market confidence
- The narrow gap between Chess (66¢) and China/Chinese (65¢) suggests traders view multiple feature categories as nearly equally likely to be mentioned
- Resolution depends on specific language and emphasis during the earnings call rather than mere product existence, requiring careful determination of what constitutes mentioning chess

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionduol
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=earningsmentionduol

## License

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