# What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call

> Uncertainty leads at 91%, runner-up 76% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentiongs
Updated: 2026-07-14T08:20:49.324Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Uncertainty at 91%
- Runner-up: Geopolitical at 76%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uncertainty | 91¢ | +3pp | $51 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-goldman-sachs-group-inc-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentiongs-26jul14-unce |
| Geopolitical | 76¢ | −10pp | $46 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-goldman-sachs-group-inc-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentiongs-26jul14-geop |
| Private Credit | 74¢ | +2pp | $46 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-goldman-sachs-group-inc-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentiongs-26jul14-priv |
| SpaceX | 69¢ | ±0 | $44 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-goldman-sachs-group-inc-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentiongs-26jul14-spac |
| Inflation | 68¢ | −1pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-goldman-sachs-group-inc-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentiongs-26jul14-infl |
| Tailwind | 66¢ | −10pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-goldman-sachs-group-inc-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentiongs-26jul14-tail |
| Buyback | 59¢ | −10pp | $74 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-goldman-sachs-group-inc-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentiongs-26jul14-buyb |
| Regulation | 56¢ | −23pp | $31 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-goldman-sachs-group-inc-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentiongs-26jul14-regu |
| Recession | 32¢ | −4pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-goldman-sachs-group-inc-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentiongs-26jul14-rece |
| Pipeline | 22¢ | −10pp | $229 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-goldman-sachs-group-inc-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentiongs-26jul14-pipe |
| Tariff | 20¢ | −3pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-goldman-sachs-group-inc-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentiongs-26jul14-tari |
| Industry Ventures | 19¢ | −3pp | $296 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-goldman-sachs-group-inc-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentiongs-26jul14-inud |
| Marcus | 17¢ | +16pp | $423 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-goldman-sachs-group-inc-say-during-t-kalshi-kxearningsmentiongs-26jul14-marc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Uncertainty | Geopolitical | Private Credit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | 75 | 3 | 19 |
| 2026-07-07 | 80 | 35 | 56 |
| 2026-07-13 | 89 | 66 | 63 |
| 2026-07-14 | — | — | 65 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-08 · Pipeline −52pp 59→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · Geopolitical +39pp 35→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-13 · Recession +37pp 18→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Industry Ventures −34pp 61→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Geopolitical −27pp 62→35¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 88% probability reflects market confidence that Goldman Sachs' next earnings call will feature discussion of macroeconomic uncertainty rather than specific operational themes. The high reading suggests traders expect management to emphasize broad economic conditions and cautious outlooks over detailed commentary on specific initiatives like tariffs, regulation, or Marcus expansion. The main driver appears to be heightened market volatility and geopolitical tensions in mid-2026, which typically prompt financial firms to lead calls with macro discussion. Goldman Sachs typically reports quarterly earnings in mid-July, mid-October, mid-January, and mid-April, with the next call likely scheduled for July 2026. Traders monitoring this contract would focus on whether management's actual remarks prioritize uncertainty or shift toward concrete guidance on specific business areas. The 55-56% pricing on Regulation and Marcus suggests meaningful probability those topics dominate instead.

### Key factors

- Goldman Sachs' next earnings call is likely scheduled for mid-July 2026, making it the nearest catalyst for resolution
- The 31-cent Tariff contract price indicates traders assign low probability to tariff discussion dominance, despite current trade policy environment
- Regulation and Marcus each trade at 55-56 cents, suggesting meaningful but subordinate likelihood compared to the Uncertainty outcome
- Volume concentration ($5,478 in 24h on Tariffs vs. $74 on Uncertainty) indicates active disagreement on whether macro or specific business topics will drive the call
- The 88-cent Uncertainty price reflects high conviction but not certainty, leaving 12% probability mass for alternative outcomes combined

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentiongs
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=earningsmentiongs

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