# What will Intel Corporation say during their next earnings call

> Foundry leads at 93%, runner-up 88% across 15 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 19 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionintc
Updated: 2026-07-13T08:20:48.791Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-30

## Headline

- Leader: Foundry at 93%
- Runner-up: Panther Lake / 18A at 88%
- Outcomes: 15 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K
- Resolved: yes

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foundry | 93¢ | +4pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intel-corporation-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintc-26jul23-foun |
| Panther Lake / 18A | 88¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intel-corporation-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintc-26jul23-pant |
| Mobileye | 84¢ | +4pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intel-corporation-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintc-26jul23-mobi |
| Ultra 3 / Ultra Series 3 | 63¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intel-corporation-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintc-26jul23-ultr |
| Government | 53¢ | −14pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intel-corporation-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintc-26jul23-gove |
| Security | 35¢ | −6pp | $105 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intel-corporation-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintc-26jul23-secu |
| Nvidia | 34¢ | −4pp | $341 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intel-corporation-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintc-26jul23-nvid |
| Arizona | 30¢ | −8pp | $592 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intel-corporation-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintc-26jul23-ariz |
| Tariff | 27¢ | +25pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intel-corporation-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintc-26jul23-tari |
| Desktop | 24¢ | +12pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intel-corporation-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintc-26jul23-desk |
| Apple | 16¢ | −11pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intel-corporation-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintc-26jul23-appl |
| Trump | 11¢ | −8pp | $170 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intel-corporation-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintc-26jul23-trum |
| Siemens | 5¢ | −5pp | $22 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intel-corporation-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintc-26jul23-siem |
| Client Computing | 4¢ | −24pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intel-corporation-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintc-26jul23-cli |
| Dividend | 3¢ | +1pp | $474 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intel-corporation-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintc-26jul23-divi |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Foundry | Panther Lake / 18A | Mobileye |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | 82 | 67 | 37 |
| 2026-07-10 | 95 | 85 | 58 |
| 2026-07-11 | — | 87 | 61 |
| 2026-07-12 | 80 | 86 | 83 |
| 2026-07-13 | 84 | 87 | 87 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-10 · Ultra 3 / Ultra Series 3 −31pp 47→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-13 · Tariff +25pp 5→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Client Computing −24pp 29→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Ultra 3 / Ultra Series 3 +24pp 16→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-12 · Trump +22pp 4→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction reflects market expectations about Intel's messaging priorities during their next scheduled earnings call. At 96%, the Foundry business topic dominates expectations, suggesting traders believe Intel executives will emphasize their manufacturing-as-a-service strategy as a key discussion point. The positioning reflects Intel's strategic pivot toward becoming a foundry competitor and their need to update investors on progress in this capital-intensive segment. Uncertainty exists around whether management will instead prioritize other developments: their Mobileye autonomous-driving unit (71¢), recent Panther Lake processor advances (87¢), or security initiatives (61¢). The resolution will occur when Intel holds its next earnings call, likely in late October 2026, when management delivers prepared remarks and guidance. Market confidence in the Foundry focus is notably higher than alternatives, though the 87¢ second-place contract suggests material probability mass around processor technology announcements.

### Key factors

- Intel's foundry business represents their largest capital allocation and strategic transformation, making it a statistically likely earnings-call topic given investor focus on this division's progress
- Recent industry developments in semiconductor manufacturing, U.S. subsidies, and foundry competition directly affect whether management prioritizes foundry narrative versus other business segments
- Panther Lake processor timeline and competitive positioning could shift messaging priorities if the architecture faces delays or acceleration compared to prior guidance
- Mobileye's autonomous-driving business and acquisition integration status provides alternative high-stakes narrative Intel might emphasize depending on recent developments
- The timing of the earnings call date and any intervening industry announcements (competitor actions, regulatory changes, quarterly results) will narrow uncertainty closer to resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionintc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=earningsmentionintc

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