# What will Intuit Inc. say during their next earnings call

> Mailchimp leads at 95%, runner-up 92% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionintu
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:50.615Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: Mailchimp at 95%
- Runner-up: Desktop at 92%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mailchimp | 95¢ | +41pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intuit-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintu-26aug25-mail |
| Desktop | 92¢ | +4pp | $420 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intuit-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintu-26aug25-desk |
| Online Payment | 91¢ | +2pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intuit-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintu-26aug25-onli |
| Intuit Enterprise Suite | 91¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intuit-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintu-26aug25-intu |
| Investor Day | 89¢ | +2pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intuit-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintu-26aug25-inve |
| TurboTax Live | 84¢ | +7pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intuit-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintu-26aug25-turb |
| QuickBooks Online | 82¢ | ±0 | $250 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intuit-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintu-26aug25-quic |
| Restructuring | 78¢ | +1pp | $243 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intuit-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintu-26aug25-rest |
| DIY | 74¢ | +2pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intuit-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintu-26aug25-diy |
| ARPU | 59¢ | −3pp | $184 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intuit-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintu-26aug25-arpu |
| Agentic | 48¢ | −2pp | $501 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intuit-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintu-26aug25-agen |
| Pro Tax | 46¢ | −10pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intuit-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintu-26aug25-prot |
| QuickBooks Advanced | 23¢ | +2pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intuit-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintu-26aug25-quic2 |
| Intuit Assist | 12¢ | +1pp | $61 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-intuit-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionintu-26aug25-intu2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Mailchimp | Desktop | Online Payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | 52 | 54 | 31 |
| 2026-08-20 | 93 | 88 | — |
| 2026-08-21 | — | — | 90 |
| 2026-08-23 | — | 92 | 88 |
| 2026-08-24 | — | — | 90 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-21 · Online Payment +59pp 31→90¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Mailchimp +41pp 52→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Investor Day +39pp 40→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Restructuring +37pp 28→65¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Desktop +34pp 54→88¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects the likelihood that Intuit will mention TurboTax Live during their next earnings call. At 64%, the contract suggests it's more probable than not that management will discuss this product line when reporting financial results. The probability level reflects uncertainty about which business segments receive emphasis during earnings calls—management typically highlights growth areas, regulatory developments, or strategic initiatives most relevant to quarterly performance. The main driver moving this probability would be Intuit's recent performance in the TurboTax Live segment and broader consumer tax software trends. The nearest catalyst is Intuit's next scheduled earnings announcement, where management will select which products and metrics to emphasize in prepared remarks and Q&A. Competing products like QuickBooks Online (54¢) and Pro Tax (60¢) show similar probability levels, suggesting multiple product discussions are also likely during the call.

### Key factors

- TurboTax Live's recent revenue growth or market share trajectory relative to competing segments
- Historical frequency of TurboTax Live mentions in Intuit's prior earnings calls and investor materials
- Quarterly performance metrics of consumer tax products versus pro tax and small business accounting solutions
- Any recent M&A, competitive threats, or regulatory changes in the tax preparation industry that would warrant management commentary
- Intuit's overall earnings call length and number of topics typically covered, affecting likelihood any single product receives mention

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionintu
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=earningsmentionintu

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