# What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call

> Procedure leads at 84%, runner-up 83% across 15 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 39 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionjnj
Updated: 2026-07-12T23:20:49.090Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Procedure at 84%
- Runner-up: China at 83%
- Outcomes: 15 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $677

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Procedure | 84¢ | +14pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-johnson-johnson-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjnj-26jul15-proc |
| China | 83¢ | +12pp | $43 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-johnson-johnson-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjnj-26jul15-chin |
| Rybrevant | 82¢ | +3pp | $27 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-johnson-johnson-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjnj-26jul15-rybr |
| Europe | 81¢ | −1pp | $43 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-johnson-johnson-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjnj-26jul15-euro |
| Ottava | 81¢ | +5pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-johnson-johnson-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjnj-26jul15-otta |
| Tariff | 67¢ | +8pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-johnson-johnson-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjnj-26jul15-tari |
| Darzalex Faspro | 53¢ | +2pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-johnson-johnson-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjnj-26jul15-darz |
| Litigation | 41¢ | +2pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-johnson-johnson-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjnj-26jul15-liti |
| Administration | 41¢ | +3pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-johnson-johnson-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjnj-26jul15-admi |
| Nipocalimab / Lupus | 38¢ | −1pp | $303 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-johnson-johnson-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjnj-26jul15-nipo |
| Halda Therapeutics | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-johnson-johnson-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjnj-26jul15-hald |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 18¢ | −1pp | $200 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-johnson-johnson-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjnj-26jul15-ai |
| Gene Therapy | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-johnson-johnson-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjnj-26jul15-gene |
| Vaccine | 7¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-johnson-johnson-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjnj-26jul15-vacc |
| Trufill | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-johnson-johnson-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjnj-26jul15-truf |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Procedure | China | Rybrevant |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | 28 | 32 | 26 |
| 2026-07-05 | — | 80 | 82 |
| 2026-07-06 | 59 | 76 | — |
| 2026-07-11 | 59 | 61 | 85 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-09 · China −33pp 72→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-06 · Procedure +31pp 28→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Tariff +27pp 29→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Nipocalimab / Lupus −17pp 47→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Procedure −15pp 60→45¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market predicts that Johnson & Johnson will mention Ottava during their next earnings call, with a leading probability of 84%. The high confidence reflects Ottava's recent acquisition and clinical significance to J&J's portfolio, as this is a natural topic for management to discuss with investors. The probability could shift based on the timing of the earnings call relative to Ottava developments, competitive announcements, or changes in J&J's communication strategy. The next scheduled earnings call will definitively resolve this outcome by either including or excluding Ottava discussion. Movements would likely follow clinical trial updates, regulatory decisions affecting Ottava, or shifts in management's prioritization of this asset relative to other pipeline programs like Darzalex Faspro or Halda Therapeutics.

### Key factors

- J&J's recent acquisition of Ottava and its strategic importance to the company's robotics and surgical platforms
- Historical pattern of J&J mentioning major recent acquisitions and pipeline assets during earnings calls to investors
- Trading volume concentration on Ottava contract ($300 24h volume) versus Vaccine, Darzalex Faspro, and AI contracts, indicating market confidence in this outcome
- Timing of next earnings call relative to any Ottava clinical, regulatory, or commercial milestones
- Management's typical communication frequency regarding surgical innovation and robotics segments during investor presentations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionjnj
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=earningsmentionjnj

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