# What will JPMorgan Chase & Co. say during their next earnings call

> Trading leads at 78%, runner-up 74% across 18 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 43 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionjpm
Updated: 2026-07-12T21:20:52.044Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Trading at 78%
- Runner-up: Private Credit at 74%
- Outcomes: 18 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $363

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trading | 78¢ | +2pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jpmorgan-chase-co-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjpm-26jul14-trad |
| Private Credit | 74¢ | +1pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jpmorgan-chase-co-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjpm-26jul14-priv |
| M&A / Merger | 74¢ | +7pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jpmorgan-chase-co-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjpm-26jul14-ma |
| Buyback | 74¢ | +7pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jpmorgan-chase-co-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjpm-26jul14-buyb |
| Inflation | 70¢ | +6pp | $41 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jpmorgan-chase-co-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjpm-26jul14-infl |
| Basel 3 | 70¢ | +7pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jpmorgan-chase-co-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjpm-26jul14-base |
| Hiring | 64¢ | +2pp | $27 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jpmorgan-chase-co-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjpm-26jul14-hiri |
| Geopolitical | 57¢ | −1pp | $57 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jpmorgan-chase-co-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjpm-26jul14-geop |
| Credit Card | 57¢ | −4pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jpmorgan-chase-co-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjpm-26jul14-cred |
| Regulation | 46¢ | −13pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jpmorgan-chase-co-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjpm-26jul14-regu |
| Rate Cut / Cut Rates | 36¢ | +1pp | $82 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jpmorgan-chase-co-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjpm-26jul14-rate |
| Recession | 33¢ | +5pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jpmorgan-chase-co-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjpm-26jul14-rece |
| Fintech | 25¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jpmorgan-chase-co-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjpm-26jul14-fint |
| Fraud | 19¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jpmorgan-chase-co-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjpm-26jul14-frau |
| Hike | 18¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jpmorgan-chase-co-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjpm-26jul14-hike |
| Tariff | 9¢ | −3pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jpmorgan-chase-co-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjpm-26jul14-tari |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 5¢ | −1pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jpmorgan-chase-co-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjpm-26jul14-cryp |
| Blockchain | 4¢ | ±0 | $21 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jpmorgan-chase-co-say-during-their-next-kalshi-kxearningsmentionjpm-26jul14-bloc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Trading | Private Credit | M&A / Merger |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | 64 | 86 | 22 |
| 2026-07-04 | 71 | 77 | 49 |
| 2026-07-05 | 80 | — | 58 |
| 2026-07-11 | 76 | 75 | 73 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-06 · Credit Card −41pp 60→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Credit Card −34pp 65→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · Fraud +27pp 13→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Geopolitical −20pp 58→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Recession −19pp 55→36¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that JPMorgan Chase will mention a specific topic during their next earnings call, currently showing an 89% probability for one particular outcome. The market reflects traders' expectations about what management will discuss based on recent business developments and investor concerns. JPMorgan's earnings calls typically cover macroeconomic conditions, regulatory changes, and strategic priorities. The high concentration at 89% suggests strong consensus around one outcome, while lower-priced contracts indicate fragmented expectations across alternatives like blockchain, credit cards, crypto, fintech, and tariffs. The earnings call itself will fully resolve this uncertainty, making the actual event the definitive catalyst. Trading activity has been modest, with most contracts showing limited daily volume, suggesting relatively low trader engagement relative to the contract universe.

### Key factors

- JPMorgan's most recent public statements and SEC filings will likely foreshadow what management prioritizes on the earnings call
- Recent market developments (interest rates, regulatory announcements, geopolitical events) typically drive which topics receive emphasis in earnings communications
- The timing of the earnings call and any interim company announcements between now and then could shift expectations about what management addresses
- Historical patterns show JPMorgan tends to emphasize topics tied to recent earnings drivers or ongoing investor debates
- Low trading volume on most contracts suggests uncertainty may be genuine rather than reflecting broad market consensus

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionjpm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=earningsmentionjpm

## License

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