# What will Lyft, Inc. say during their next earnings call

> Waymo leads at 85%, runner-up 82% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionlyft
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:58.574Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-30

## Headline

- Leader: Waymo at 85%
- Runner-up: FreeNow / Free Now at 82%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waymo | 85¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-waym |
| FreeNow / Free Now | 82¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-free |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 71¢ | +1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-oil |
| Revenue | 69¢ | −10pp | $802 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-reve |
| Innovation | 65¢ | −4pp | $155 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-inno |
| Expansion | 64¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-expa |
| Competition | 56¢ | −1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-comp |
| Nvidia | 52¢ | −7pp | $142 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-nvid |
| International | 51¢ | −4pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-inte |
| Safety | 49¢ | −15pp | $343 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-safe |
| Mobileye | 37¢ | −12pp | $160 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-mobi |
| Membership | 17¢ | −1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-memb |
| Tariff | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-tari |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Waymo | FreeNow / Free Now | Oil / Gas / Gasoline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 80 | 81 | 31 |
| 2026-04-26 | 83 | 83 | 66 |
| 2026-04-30 | 84 | 82 | 68 |
| 2026-05-01 | — | 85 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | — | — | 69 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Safety −15pp 59→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Mobileye −12pp 48→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Innovation −11pp 83→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Revenue −10pp 78→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Nvidia −9pp 70→61¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction measures the likelihood that Lyft will mention revenue in their next earnings call. At 53%, the market views it as roughly even odds. The probability reflects uncertainty around what metrics management prioritizes discussing—Lyft typically reports revenue as a standard measure, but emphasis levels vary by quarter depending on company strategy and market conditions. The primary driver moving this probability would be Lyft's actual earnings date and their prepared remarks, which would resolve the contract when management's statements are reviewed against the resolution criteria. Historical earnings call transcripts and guidance patterns also influence trader positioning. The contract resolves after Lyft's Q1 or Q2 2026 earnings call, depending on timing.

### Key factors

- Lyft's recent pattern of revenue disclosure in earnings calls and investor presentations
- Comparison contract on Palantir shows 86% probability for similar revenue guidance topics, suggesting market norms for major tech earnings
- Trading volume of $802 24h on this specific contract indicates moderate but not overwhelming interest relative to broader market activity
- Related Lyft contracts show 67% probability on revenue discussions, establishing baseline expectations for management commentary
- Earnings call date uncertainty and timing relative to market calendar affects when resolution occurs

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionlyft
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=earningsmentionlyft

## License

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