# What will ON Semiconductor Corporation say during their next earnings call

> EV / Electric Vehicle leads at 90%, runner-up 78% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionon
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:57.994Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-30

## Headline

- Leader: EV / Electric Vehicle at 90%
- Runner-up: Autonomous / Automation at 78%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV / Electric Vehicle | 90¢ | +5pp | $106 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-on-semiconductor-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentionon-26may04-ev |
| Autonomous / Automation | 78¢ | −7pp | $80 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-on-semiconductor-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentionon-26may04-auto |
| Headwind | 66¢ | +3pp | $148 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-on-semiconductor-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentionon-26may04-head |
| Market Share | 63¢ | +1pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-on-semiconductor-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentionon-26may04-mark |
| NIO | 62¢ | +1pp | $190 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-on-semiconductor-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentionon-26may04-nio |
| Tailwind | 62¢ | −4pp | $151 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-on-semiconductor-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentionon-26may04-tail |
| Backlog | 42¢ | −2pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-on-semiconductor-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentionon-26may04-back |
| Sineng Electric | 39¢ | −1pp | $135 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-on-semiconductor-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentionon-26may04-sine |
| Nvidia | 38¢ | −1pp | $96 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-on-semiconductor-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentionon-26may04-nvid |
| Tariff | 36¢ | −9pp | $78 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-on-semiconductor-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentionon-26may04-tari |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | EV / Electric Vehicle | Autonomous / Automation | Headwind |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 82 | 75 | 62 |
| 2026-04-29 | — | 76 | 65 |
| 2026-04-30 | 82 | 75 | 63 |
| 2026-05-01 | 79 | 79 | 65 |
| 2026-05-02 | 85 | 72 | 61 |
| 2026-05-03 | 90 | — | 64 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · NIO +39pp 16→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Tariff +9pp 38→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Tariff −9pp 41→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Autonomous / Automation −7pp 79→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · EV / Electric Vehicle +6pp 79→85¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents a 50% probability that ON Semiconductor will mention NIO, tariffs, or other specific topics during their next earnings call. The market is split on what management will prioritize in their communications. Factors driving the probability include ON Semiconductor's current exposure to NIO's EV production volumes and supply chain disruptions, as well as geopolitical tariff policies affecting semiconductor exports. The company's next quarterly earnings call, typically occurring within the next 1-2 months based on their standard reporting schedule, will resolve this uncertainty by revealing which topics management addresses and emphasizes. Trading volume concentration in NIO-related contracts (59¢, $1008 volume) suggests market focus on automotive sector commentary, while lower tariff contract prices indicate less confidence in protectionist policy discussion. The resolution depends entirely on what management chooses to discuss rather than underlying business performance.

### Key factors

- ON Semiconductor's revenue exposure to NIO customers and Chinese EV manufacturers relative to total revenue
- Current U.S.-China trade policy environment and announced or pending tariff implementations affecting semiconductor supply chains
- The timing and format of the next scheduled earnings call and whether management typically addresses geopolitical factors
- Recent quarterly results showing revenue growth or decline from automotive and EV-related segments
- Competitive positioning statements that might naturally lead to discussion of supply chain pressures or customer concentration

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionon
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=earningsmentionon

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.