# What will Ferrari N.V. say during their next earnings call

> Formula 1 / F1 leads at 96%, runner-up 95% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionrace
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:51.805Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-31

## Headline

- Leader: Formula 1 / F1 at 96%
- Runner-up: Currency at 95%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $345

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Formula 1 / F1 | 96¢ | +7pp | $80 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ferrari-nv-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionrace-26may05-form |
| Currency | 95¢ | +10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ferrari-nv-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionrace-26may05-curr |
| Luce | 90¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ferrari-nv-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionrace-26may05-luce |
| China | 81¢ | +15pp | $179 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ferrari-nv-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionrace-26may05-chin |
| United States / Americas | 77¢ | +3pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ferrari-nv-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionrace-26may05-unit |
| Tariff | 72¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ferrari-nv-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionrace-26may05-tari |
| Headwind | 70¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ferrari-nv-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionrace-26may05-head |
| Battery | 68¢ | +2pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ferrari-nv-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionrace-26may05-batt |
| Hypersail | 63¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ferrari-nv-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionrace-26may05-hype |
| Middle East | 57¢ | −4pp | $32 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ferrari-nv-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionrace-26may05-midd |
| Backlog | 42¢ | −2pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ferrari-nv-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionrace-26may05-back |
| Tailwind | 26¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ferrari-nv-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionrace-26may05-tail |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Formula 1 / F1 | Currency | Luce |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 85 | 82 | 59 |
| 2026-04-29 | 86 | — | 82 |
| 2026-04-30 | 86 | 82 | 80 |
| 2026-05-01 | 86 | 85 | 85 |
| 2026-05-02 | 93 | 95 | 89 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Luce +23pp 59→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Hypersail +20pp 46→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Tariff +17pp 54→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · China +15pp 66→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · China −14pp 80→66¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 95% probability represents the likelihood that Ferrari N.V. will make specific statements during their next earnings call. The high confidence reflects strong historical consistency in corporate earnings communications—companies typically address consistent topics like financial performance, production targets, and strategic initiatives. The probability could shift based on unexpected market events affecting Ferrari (supply chain disruptions, significant leadership changes, or major acquisitions) that might alter management's typical messaging pattern. The key resolution point will be Ferrari's next scheduled earnings call announcement, when actual statements can be compared against the market's expectations. Until that call occurs and transcripts are published, uncertainty remains around which specific statements will be prioritized or emphasized by management.

### Key factors

- Ferrari's historical earnings call patterns and consistency in addressing core business topics like luxury vehicle sales, production capacity, and capital allocation
- Major external events between now and the earnings call that could force management to address unexpected topics (regulatory changes, market crashes, or operational disruptions)
- The specific wording and threshold requirements for what counts as 'saying' particular statements during the call versus mere mentions
- Market conditions and quarterly performance that would determine which forward-looking statements management chooses to emphasize or de-emphasize
- Availability and timing of Ferrari's next official earnings call announcement and publication of verified call transcripts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionrace
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=earningsmentionrace

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.