# What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call

> Data Center leads at 95%, runner-up 86% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 16 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionspcx
Updated: 2026-07-23T23:20:49.793Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Data Center at 95%
- Runner-up: Cursor at 86%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | 95¢ | +9pp | $542 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-space-exploration-technologies-corp-say-kalshi-kxearningsmentionspcx-26aug04-data |
| Cursor | 86¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-space-exploration-technologies-corp-say-kalshi-kxearningsmentionspcx-26aug04-curs |
| Mars | 82¢ | +6pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-space-exploration-technologies-corp-say-kalshi-kxearningsmentionspcx-26aug04-mars |
| Moon | 73¢ | +21pp | $320 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-space-exploration-technologies-corp-say-kalshi-kxearningsmentionspcx-26aug04-moon |
| Starbase | 73¢ | +14pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-space-exploration-technologies-corp-say-kalshi-kxearningsmentionspcx-26aug04-starb |
| Unlock / Lock Up | 68¢ | +8pp | $223 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-space-exploration-technologies-corp-say-kalshi-kxearningsmentionspcx-26aug04-unlo |
| China / Chinese | 66¢ | +50pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-space-exploration-technologies-corp-say-kalshi-kxearningsmentionspcx-26aug04-chin |
| Anthropic / OpenAI | 63¢ | +37pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-space-exploration-technologies-corp-say-kalshi-kxearningsmentionspcx-26aug04-anth |
| T-Mobile | 60¢ | +6pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-space-exploration-technologies-corp-say-kalshi-kxearningsmentionspcx-26aug04-tmob |
| Colossus | 59¢ | +44pp | $843 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-space-exploration-technologies-corp-say-kalshi-kxearningsmentionspcx-26aug04-colo |
| Starmind | 59¢ | +29pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-space-exploration-technologies-corp-say-kalshi-kxearningsmentionspcx-26aug04-star |
| NASA | 54¢ | −3pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-space-exploration-technologies-corp-say-kalshi-kxearningsmentionspcx-26aug04-nasa |
| Artemis | 46¢ | +14pp | $230 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-space-exploration-technologies-corp-say-kalshi-kxearningsmentionspcx-26aug04-arte |
| Tesla | 43¢ | +3pp | $272 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-space-exploration-technologies-corp-say-kalshi-kxearningsmentionspcx-26aug04-tesl |
| ISS / International Space Station | 40¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-space-exploration-technologies-corp-say-kalshi-kxearningsmentionspcx-26aug04-iss |
| MRV / Mission Robotic Vehicle | 37¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-space-exploration-technologies-corp-say-kalshi-kxearningsmentionspcx-26aug04-mrv |
| Nvidia | 35¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-space-exploration-technologies-corp-say-kalshi-kxearningsmentionspcx-26aug04-nvid |
| Weather | 26¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-space-exploration-technologies-corp-say-kalshi-kxearningsmentionspcx-26aug04-weat |
| Trump | 17¢ | −3pp | $208 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-space-exploration-technologies-corp-say-kalshi-kxearningsmentionspcx-26aug04-trum |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Data Center | Cursor | Mars |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | 77 | 75 | 66 |
| 2026-07-22 | 84 | 83 | 50 |
| 2026-07-23 | 93 | 86 | 56 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-23 · China / Chinese +50pp 18→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-23 · Colossus +44pp 13→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-23 · Anthropic / OpenAI +37pp 27→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-22 · Starmind +29pp 15→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-23 · Moon +21pp 52→73¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects traders' assessment that SpaceX will emphasize artificial intelligence or computational infrastructure during their next earnings call, with that outcome priced at 84% likelihood. The leading contract suggests strong market conviction that data center or AI-related capabilities will feature prominently in management's prepared remarks, possibly reflecting recent industry trends around AI infrastructure demand or SpaceX's own computational needs. The runner-up positions for Mars and other topics indicate meaningful uncertainty about which business segment receives primary focus. The next earnings call—typically scheduled 4-6 weeks after the preceding quarter ends—will definitively resolve the question once a transcript becomes available, making the exact date and content of management's opening remarks the primary catalyst. Market pricing could shift substantially based on recent SpaceX contract announcements, industry developments, or signals about which division management plans to highlight.

### Key factors

- Current pricing shows 82¢ for data center and 81¢ for 'cursor' outcomes, suggesting traders view AI/computational infrastructure as most probable discussion topic
- Mars-related outcome prices at 74¢, indicating secondary but meaningful probability that space exploration goals receive emphasis
- Thinner conviction on Moon (45¢) and T-Mobile (53¢) outcomes suggests lower trader confidence in telecommunications or lunar focus
- 24-hour trading volumes ($1.2-1.4k for leading contracts) reflect moderate but consistent market participation in pricing these outcomes
- Resolution depends on literal earnings call transcript content, making exact wording and emphasis of management remarks the determining factor

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionspcx
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=earningsmentionspcx

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