# What will Tesla, Inc. say during their next earnings call

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 57% across 19 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentiontsla
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:21:01.234Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-30

## Headline

- Probability: 57% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government Contract | 20¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-say-during-the-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpltr-26may04-gove |
| Revenue guidance | 86¢ | +7pp | $895 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-say-during-the-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpltr-26may04-reve |
| Nvidia | 48¢ | +3pp | $656 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-say-during-the-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpltr-26may04-nvid |
| Stellantis | 43¢ | +1pp | $490 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-say-during-the-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpltr-26may04-stel |
| Safety | 49¢ | −15pp | $343 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-safe |
| Stablecoin / Stable Coin | 71¢ | +8pp | $335 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-paypal-holdings-inc-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpypl-26may05-stab |
| Israel | 57¢ | +1pp | $261 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-say-during-the-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpltr-26may04-isra |
| Bitcoin | 15¢ | −4pp | $221 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-paypal-holdings-inc-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpypl-26may05-bitc |
| Commercial Growth | 28¢ | +2pp | $192 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-say-during-the-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpltr-26may04-comm |
| Mobileye | 37¢ | −12pp | $160 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-mobi |
| Innovation | 65¢ | −4pp | $155 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-inno |
| Healthcare | 53¢ | −3pp | $149 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-say-during-the-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpltr-26may04-heal |
| Nvidia | 52¢ | −7pp | $142 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-nvid |
| Joby | 62¢ | +1pp | $122 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-uber-technologies-inc-say-during-their-n-kalshi-kxearningsmentionuber-26may06-joby |
| USDA | 78¢ | +12pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-say-during-the-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpltr-26may04-usda |
| Social Media | 59¢ | −7pp | $46 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-soci |
| Biometric | 87¢ | +2pp | $27 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-paypal-holdings-inc-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpypl-26may05-biom |
| OpenAI | 74¢ | +7pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-shopify-inc-say-during-their-next-earnin-kalshi-kxearningsmentionshop-26may05-open |
| Shop Pay | 97¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-shopify-inc-say-during-their-next-earnin-kalshi-kxearningsmentionshop-26may05-shop |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 47 |
| 2026-04-26 | 65 |
| 2026-05-03 | 54 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Revenue guidance +29pp 33→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Safety −15pp 59→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · USDA +15pp 35→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Stellantis +14pp 35→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · USDA +13pp 51→64¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentiontsla
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=earningsmentiontsla

## License

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