# What will United Airlines Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 46% across 20 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionual
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:54.453Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 46% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stablecoin / Stable Coin | 71¢ | +8pp | $335 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-paypal-holdings-inc-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpypl-26may05-stab |
| Bitcoin | 15¢ | −4pp | $221 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-paypal-holdings-inc-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpypl-26may05-bitc |
| Stash | 41¢ | +12pp | $183 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-paypal-holdings-inc-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpypl-26may05-stas |
| Above 47.5 million | 33¢ | −2pp | $111 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-475-kalshi-kxual-26julpax-47500000.0 |
| Cash Back / Cashback | 61¢ | +12pp | $106 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-paypal-holdings-inc-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpypl-26may05-cash |
| Unprofitable | 20¢ | −3pp | $64 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-paypal-holdings-inc-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpypl-26may05-unpr |
| Bank | 44¢ | +12pp | $59 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-paypal-holdings-inc-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpypl-26may05-bank |
| Google | 48¢ | −1pp | $53 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-paypal-holdings-inc-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpypl-26may05-goog |
| Above 46.5 million | 60¢ | −1pp | $37 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-465-kalshi-kxual-26julpax-46500000.0 |
| Biometric | 87¢ | +2pp | $27 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-paypal-holdings-inc-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpypl-26may05-biom |
| Ads ID | 57¢ | −4pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-paypal-holdings-inc-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpypl-26may05-ads |
| Above 47 million | 44¢ | +1pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-47-kalshi-kxual-26julpax-47000000.0 |
| Above 48.5 million | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-485-kalshi-kxual-26julpax-48500000.0 |
| Above 46 million | 67¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-46-kalshi-kxual-26julpax-46000000.0 |
| Above 45 million | 85¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-45-kalshi-kxual-26julpax-45000000.0 |
| Above 48 million | 15¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-48-kalshi-kxual-26julpax-48000000.0 |
| Above 45.5 million | 74¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-455-kalshi-kxual-26julpax-45500000.0 |
| Blue Owl | 22¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-paypal-holdings-inc-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpypl-26may05-blue |
| College | 34¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-paypal-holdings-inc-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpypl-26may05-coll |
| Regulation / Regulator / Regulatory | 26¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-paypal-holdings-inc-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpypl-26may05-regu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | 37 |
| 2026-04-26 | 46 |
| 2026-05-03 | 44 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Stash +15pp 15→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Unprofitable −15pp 37→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Stash +12pp 37→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Cash Back / Cashback +12pp 49→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Bank +12pp 32→44¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionual
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=earningsmentionual

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.