# What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call

> Uncertainty leads at 85%, runner-up 81% across 16 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 58 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionulta
Updated: 2026-05-28T21:20:12.551Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-30

## Headline

- Leader: Uncertainty at 85%
- Runner-up: Space NK at 81%
- Outcomes: 16 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $134

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uncertainty | 85¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ulta-beauty-inc-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionulta-26jun02-unce |
| Space NK | 81¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ulta-beauty-inc-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionulta-26jun02-spac |
| Target | 77¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ulta-beauty-inc-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionulta-26jun02-targ |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 74¢ | — | $37 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ulta-beauty-inc-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionulta-26jun02-ai |
| Luxury | 69¢ | −11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ulta-beauty-inc-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionulta-26jun02-luxu |
| Holiday | 66¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ulta-beauty-inc-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionulta-26jun02-holi |
| Middle East | 65¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ulta-beauty-inc-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionulta-26jun02-midd |
| Traffic | 57¢ | −4pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ulta-beauty-inc-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionulta-26jun02-traf |
| Google / Gemini | 54¢ | +33pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ulta-beauty-inc-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionulta-26jun02-goog |
| Reward | 51¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ulta-beauty-inc-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionulta-26jun02-rewa |
| Store Opening | 47¢ | — | $29 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ulta-beauty-inc-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionulta-26jun02-stor |
| Headwind | 45¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ulta-beauty-inc-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionulta-26jun02-head |
| Rare Beauty | 43¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ulta-beauty-inc-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionulta-26jun02-rare |
| Tailwind | 37¢ | +7pp | $27 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ulta-beauty-inc-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionulta-26jun02-tail |
| Tariff | 34¢ | +1pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ulta-beauty-inc-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionulta-26jun02-tari |
| Diamond | 32¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ulta-beauty-inc-say-during-their-next-ea-kalshi-kxearningsmentionulta-26jun02-diam |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Uncertainty | Space NK | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 79 | 65 | 57 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · Google / Gemini +33pp 18→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Luxury −11pp 69→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Reward +8pp 42→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Tailwind +7pp 34→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Holiday +5pp 48→53¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market participants' collective assessment that Ulta Beauty's next earnings call will feature notable uncertainty around key business metrics or forward guidance rather than definitive statements on specific topics. The 81% price on the 'Uncertainty' contract indicates traders believe management will likely discuss unresolved business challenges—such as traffic patterns, luxury segment performance, or holiday season outlook—without providing clear resolution. The leading alternative outcomes include discussion of Google/Gemini integration (50¢), holiday performance (48¢), traffic trends (53¢), and luxury category health (65¢). The contract structure suggests the market is pricing in elevated ambiguity in Ulta's near-term visibility, potentially reflecting broader retail sector volatility or challenges specific to Ulta's business. Resolution will depend on what management actually communicates when the next earnings call occurs, with the specific content of forward guidance being the critical factor determining which outcome occurs.

### Key factors

- The 'Uncertainty' contract commanding 81¢ suggests traders expect management will avoid definitive statements rather than provide clear, resolved outlooks on operational metrics
- Multiple competing sub-50¢ contracts on specific topics (traffic, luxury, holiday, technology initiatives) indicate fragmentation in what traders expect to be discussed
- The 24-hour volume pattern shows 'Uncertainty' contract with $110 volume versus $155 for Google/Gemini, suggesting active disagreement about whether specific initiatives or challenges will dominate the call
- Ulta Beauty's retail performance in prior quarters and current market conditions will constrain what guidance management can realistically provide without significant revision
- The contract outcomes appear mutually exclusive categories rather than binary yes/no questions, making this a genuine multi-way prediction on call content rather than a probability estimate of a single event

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionulta
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=earningsmentionulta

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