# What will Wells Fargo & Company say during their next earnings call

> Middle Market leads at 87%, runner-up 82% across 16 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 43 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionwfc
Updated: 2026-07-12T21:20:50.242Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Middle Market at 87%
- Runner-up: Delinquency at 82%
- Outcomes: 16 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $730

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Market | 87¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-wells-fargo-company-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionwfc-26jul14-midd |
| Delinquency | 82¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-wells-fargo-company-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionwfc-26jul14-deli |
| Consecutive | 77¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-wells-fargo-company-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionwfc-26jul14-cons |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 75¢ | −1pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-wells-fargo-company-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionwfc-26jul14-ai |
| Premier | 65¢ | +7pp | $257 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-wells-fargo-company-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionwfc-26jul14-prem |
| Basel 3 | 61¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-wells-fargo-company-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionwfc-26jul14-base |
| Private Equity | 56¢ | +3pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-wells-fargo-company-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionwfc-26jul14-priv |
| Headwind | 54¢ | +16pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-wells-fargo-company-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionwfc-26jul14-head |
| Buyback | 53¢ | −1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-wells-fargo-company-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionwfc-26jul14-buyb |
| Severance | 51¢ | +10pp | $233 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-wells-fargo-company-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionwfc-26jul14-seve |
| Inflation | 38¢ | +16pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-wells-fargo-company-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionwfc-26jul14-infl |
| Oil | 34¢ | +20pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-wells-fargo-company-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionwfc-26jul14-oil |
| Tariff | 29¢ | +1pp | $173 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-wells-fargo-company-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionwfc-26jul14-tari |
| Zelle | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-wells-fargo-company-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionwfc-26jul14-zell |
| Recession | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-wells-fargo-company-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionwfc-26jul14-rece |
| Iran | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-wells-fargo-company-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionwfc-26jul14-iran |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Middle Market | Delinquency | Consecutive |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | 73 | 8 | 80 |
| 2026-07-04 | 83 | 48 | 78 |
| 2026-07-05 | 84 | 66 | — |
| 2026-07-11 | 84 | 38 | 83 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-07 · Oil −34pp 60→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Delinquency −32pp 66→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-05 · Oil +31pp 6→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Headwind −28pp 39→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Premier −23pp 70→47¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market predicts whether Wells Fargo will mention tariffs during their next earnings call, currently priced at 86% likelihood. The high probability reflects tariffs' prominence in recent economic discussions and their potential material impact on banking operations, particularly affecting loan portfolios, customer profitability, and lending guidance. Key factors include the current tariff environment's evolution, the timing of the earnings call relative to policy announcements, and historical precedent for tariff discussion in banking earnings. The market also prices in competing concerns like recession risks (14%) and stock buyback discussions (83%), suggesting investors view tariff mentions as more likely than recession commentary but less certain than buyback-related statements. Resolution will occur on Wells Fargo's next scheduled earnings call, likely in mid-July 2026, when the company's prepared remarks and analyst Q&A will be reviewed against the specific outcome contract language.

### Key factors

- Current U.S. tariff policy environment and any announced changes between now and earnings call date
- Historical frequency of tariff mentions in prior Wells Fargo earnings calls and banking sector precedent
- Timing alignment between earnings call date and major tariff-related policy announcements or implementation deadlines
- Competitive contract pricing showing buyback discussion at 83% vs. tariff at 86%, indicating market differentiation between operational and capital allocation topics
- Definition precision of 'mention' in the contract—whether passing reference counts or substantive discussion is required

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earningsmentionwfc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=earningsmentionwfc

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