# Will an earthquake of at least 6.8 magnitude occur before Jun 1, 2026

> At least 7.0 leads at 17%, runner-up 8% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earthquake
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.227Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: At least 7.0 at 17%
- Runner-up: At least 7.1 at 8%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 7.0 | 17¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-an-earthquake-of-at-least-70-magnitude-occur-kalshi-kxearthquake-26may-70 |
| At least 7.1 | 8¢ | −1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-an-earthquake-of-at-least-71-magnitude-occur-kalshi-kxearthquake-26may-71 |
| At least 7.2 | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-an-earthquake-of-at-least-72-magnitude-occur-kalshi-kxearthquake-26may-72 |
| At least 7.3 | 4¢ | −3pp | $84 | kalshi | /markets/will-an-earthquake-of-at-least-73-magnitude-occur-kalshi-kxearthquake-26may-73 |
| At least 7.4 | 3¢ | +2pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-an-earthquake-of-at-least-74-magnitude-occur-kalshi-kxearthquake-26may-74 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 7.0 | At least 7.1 | At least 7.2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 41 | 31 | 27 |
| 2026-05-14 | 48 | 42 | 39 |
| 2026-05-21 | 18 | 17 | 16 |
| 2026-05-28 | 16 | 10 | 8 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-21 · At least 7.1 −8pp 25→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-23 · At least 7.1 −8pp 20→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-25 · At least 7.1 +7pp 9→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · At least 7.0 −6pp 24→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-25 · At least 7.4 −6pp 10→4¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earthquake
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=earthquake

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.