# Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035

> Before 2035 leads at 26%, runner-up 6% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earthquakecalifornia
Updated: 2026-06-26T08:20:50.905Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2035-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Before 2035 at 26%
- Runner-up: Before 2027 at 6%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2035 | 26¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-an-at-least-80-magnitude-earthquake-kalshi-kxearthquakecalifornia-35 |
| Before 2027 | 6¢ | −1pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-an-at-least-8-magnitude-earthquake-i-kalshi-kxearthquakecalifornia-27 |
| Before 2028 | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-an-at-least-80-magnitude-earthquake-kalshi-kxearthquakecalifornia-28 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before 2035 | Before 2027 | Before 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 32 | — | — |
| 2026-05-29 | 31 | 7 | — |
| 2026-06-03 | — | — | 12 |
| 2026-06-07 | — | 5 | 11 |
| 2026-06-12 | 27 | 5 | — |
| 2026-06-17 | 27 | 5 | — |
| 2026-06-18 | — | — | 6 |
| 2026-06-19 | 27 | — | — |
| 2026-06-21 | 27 | — | 6 |
| 2026-06-24 | 26 | 5 | — |
| 2026-06-26 | — | 5 | — |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Before 2035 −3pp 29→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market is pricing an approximately two-in-three chance that California will experience at least one magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake before the start of 2035. The 68% probability reflects scientific understanding of seismic risk in California combined with historical earthquake frequency and recent tectonic activity assessments. The main factors influencing this estimate are expert projections from the U.S. Geological Survey regarding rupture probabilities on major fault systems like the San Andreas, as well as any significant seismic events that could shift understanding of stress accumulation. The market will gradually converge toward resolution as 2035 approaches, with any major earthquakes in California during the interval providing immediate price movement. Geologists note that while large earthquakes are inevitable over long timescales, precise timing remains unpredictable.

### Key factors

- USGS probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for California's major fault systems, particularly the San Andreas, Hayward, and Cascadia interfaces
- Historical frequency of magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes in California over multi-century periods and recent paleoseismic data
- Current stress state and accumulated strain on major California fault segments as measured by GPS geodesy and seismic monitoring
- Any significant magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes occurring before 2035 that could alter scientific probability estimates
- Changes in seismic monitoring networks or revised geological models that modify expert consensus on long-term rupture probabilities

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/earthquakecalifornia
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=earthquakecalifornia

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.