# Will eBay Inc. report Above $92 billion gross merchandise volume in 2026

> Above $84.5 billion leads at 97%, runner-up 93% across 16 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ebaya
Updated: 2026-06-29T01:20:51.120Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-03-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above $84.5 billion at 97%
- Runner-up: Above $85 billion at 93%
- Outcomes: 16 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $84.5 billion | 97¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ebay-inc-report-above-845-billion-gross-merch-kalshi-kxebaya-28jangmv-84500000000.0 |
| Above $85 billion | 93¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ebay-inc-report-above-85-billion-gross-mercha-kalshi-kxebaya-28jangmv-85000000000.0 |
| Above $85.5 billion | 90¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ebay-inc-report-above-855-billion-gross-merch-kalshi-kxebaya-28jangmv-85500000000.0 |
| Above $86 billion | 87¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ebay-inc-report-above-86-billion-gross-mercha-kalshi-kxebaya-28jangmv-86000000000.0 |
| Above $86.5 billion | 73¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ebay-inc-report-above-865-billion-gross-merch-kalshi-kxebaya-28jangmv-86500000000.0 |
| Above $87 billion | 62¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ebay-inc-report-above-87-billion-gross-mercha-kalshi-kxebaya-28jangmv-87000000000.0 |
| Above $87.5 billion | 50¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ebay-inc-report-above-875-billion-gross-merch-kalshi-kxebaya-28jangmv-87500000000.0 |
| Above $88 billion | 42¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ebay-inc-report-above-88-billion-gross-mercha-kalshi-kxebaya-28jangmv-88000000000.0 |
| Above $88.5 billion | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ebay-inc-report-above-885-billion-gross-merch-kalshi-kxebaya-28jangmv-88500000000.0 |
| Above $89 billion | 24¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ebay-inc-report-above-89-billion-gross-mercha-kalshi-kxebaya-28jangmv-89000000000.0 |
| Above $89.5 billion | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ebay-inc-report-above-895-billion-gross-merch-kalshi-kxebaya-28jangmv-89500000000.0 |
| Above $90 billion | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ebay-inc-report-above-90-billion-gross-mercha-kalshi-kxebaya-28jangmv-90000000000.0 |
| Above $90.5 billion | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ebay-inc-report-above-905-billion-gross-merch-kalshi-kxebaya-28jangmv-90500000000.0 |
| Above $91 billion | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ebay-inc-report-above-91-billion-gross-mercha-kalshi-kxebaya-28jangmv-91000000000.0 |
| Above $91.5 billion | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ebay-inc-report-above-915-billion-gross-merch-kalshi-kxebaya-28jangmv-91500000000.0 |
| Above $92 billion | 7¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ebay-inc-report-above-92-billion-gross-mercha-kalshi-kxebaya-28jangmv-92000000000.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $84.5 billion | Above $85 billion | Above $85.5 billion |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 93 | 91 | 88 |
| 2026-06-14 | 89 | 69 | 67 |
| 2026-06-22 | — | 88 | 85 |
| 2026-06-24 | 95 | 89 | 86 |
| 2026-06-25 | 97 | 91 | 88 |
| 2026-06-26 | — | 93 | 90 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Above $90 billion +3pp 10→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Above $92 billion +3pp 4→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market assesses whether eBay will exceed $92 billion in gross merchandise volume during 2026. The 94% probability reflects high confidence in this outcome, though related contracts on lower thresholds ($86.5–$88.5 billion) trade at 31–41%, indicating some uncertainty about eBay's actual performance ceiling. The primary factors supporting this probability are eBay's historical GMV trajectory and expectations for modest growth in the e-commerce sector in 2026. Downside risks include macroeconomic headwinds affecting consumer spending, increased competition in online marketplaces, or shifts in seller participation. eBay will resolve this question when reporting full-year 2026 financial results, typically announced in early 2027. The gap between the $92 billion threshold and lower-tier contracts suggests market participants see meaningful probability mass distributed across a range of outcomes.

### Key factors

- eBay's reported GMV in 2025 and historical growth rates establish a baseline; achieving $92 billion would require acceleration, stagnation, or modest decline depending on recent trends
- Related contracts at 31–41% for $86.5–$88.5 billion thresholds imply the 94% estimate may reflect strong priors rather than tight clustering around $92 billion
- Consumer spending patterns and e-commerce sector growth in 2026 will materially affect marketplace transaction volumes
- Competition from Amazon, Shopify, and regional platforms could constrain eBay seller recruitment and transaction growth
- Full-year 2026 GMV will be reported in eBay's Q4 2026 earnings announcement, typically in early 2027, which will definitively resolve the contract

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ebaya
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ebaya

## License

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