# Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Jan 1, 2027

> South Sudan leads at 68%, runner-up 61% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ebolacountry
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:10.263Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: South Sudan at 68%
- Runner-up: Kenya at 61%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Sudan | 68¢ | −1pp | $190 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-human-case-of-ebola-disease-in-south-sudan-kalshi-kxebolacountry-27-sud |
| Kenya | 61¢ | +7pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-a-human-case-of-ebola-disease-in-kenya-be-rep-kalshi-kxebolacountry-27-ken |
| Burundi | 55¢ | +1pp | $361 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-human-case-of-ebola-disease-in-burundi-be-r-kalshi-kxebolacountry-27-bur |
| Rwanda | 54¢ | +1pp | $492 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-human-case-of-ebola-disease-in-rwanda-be-re-kalshi-kxebolacountry-27-rwa |
| Rwanda | 50¢ | −6pp | $569 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-human-case-of-ebola-disease-in-rwanda-be-re-kalshi-kxebolacountry-jul26-rwa |
| India | 49¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-a-human-case-of-ebola-disease-in-india-be-rep-kalshi-kxebolacountry-27-ind |
| Kenya | 48¢ | +2pp | $402 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-human-case-of-ebola-disease-in-kenya-be-rep-kalshi-kxebolacountry-jul26-ken |
| South Sudan | 42¢ | −8pp | $776 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-human-case-of-ebola-disease-in-south-sudan-kalshi-kxebolacountry-jul26-sud |
| Central African Republic | 41¢ | +2pp | $64 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-human-case-of-ebola-disease-in-central-afri-kalshi-kxebolacountry-27-car |
| United States | 37¢ | +2pp | $490 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-human-case-of-ebola-disease-in-united-state-kalshi-kxebolacountry-27-usa |
| Zambia | 31¢ | +1pp | $27 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-human-case-of-ebola-disease-in-zambia-be-re-kalshi-kxebolacountry-27-zamb |
| India | 30¢ | −18pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-a-human-case-of-ebola-disease-in-india-be-rep-kalshi-kxebolacountry-jul26-ind |
| Angola | 26¢ | ±0 | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-human-case-of-ebola-disease-in-angola-be-re-kalshi-kxebolacountry-27-ang |
| United States | 23¢ | −3pp | $284 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-human-case-of-ebola-disease-in-united-state-kalshi-kxebolacountry-jul26-usa |
| Republic of the Congo | 21¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-a-human-case-of-ebola-disease-in-republic-of-kalshi-kxebolacountry-27-doc |
| China | 21¢ | ±0 | $102 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-human-case-of-ebola-disease-in-china-be-rep-kalshi-kxebolacountry-27-chi |
| Ethiopia | 16¢ | +1pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-human-case-of-ebola-disease-in-ethiopia-be-kalshi-kxebolacountry-27-ethi |
| Nigeria | 12¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-human-case-of-ebola-disease-in-nigeria-be-r-kalshi-kxebolacountry-27-nige |
| China | 8¢ | −1pp | $37 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-human-case-of-ebola-disease-in-china-be-rep-kalshi-kxebolacountry-jul26-chi |
| Canada | 6¢ | −2pp | $500 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-human-case-of-ebola-disease-in-canada-be-re-kalshi-kxebolacountry-jul26-cana |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | South Sudan | Kenya | Burundi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 2 | — | 6 |
| 2026-05-17 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| 2026-05-21 | 65 | 27 | 46 |
| 2026-05-28 | 68 | 58 | 56 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · India +31pp 21→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-24 · Zambia +20pp 9→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Kenya +19pp 30→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · India −18pp 52→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-24 · Angola +17pp 8→25¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ebolacountry
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ebolacountry

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.