# State of the economy at the end of 2026

> Stagflation leads at 33%, runner-up 30% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/econpath
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:22.825Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-13

## Headline

- Leader: Stagflation at 33%
- Runner-up: Overheating at 30%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stagflation | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/state-of-the-economy-at-the-end-of-2026-stagflatio-kalshi-kxeconpath-26-stag |
| Overheating | 30¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/state-of-the-economy-at-the-end-of-2026-overheatin-kalshi-kxeconpath-26-oheat |
| Soft landing | 20¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/state-of-the-economy-at-the-end-of-2026-soft-landi-kalshi-kxeconpath-26-soft |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Stagflation | Overheating | Soft landing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 27 | — | 27 |
| 2026-04-24 | — | — | 33 |
| 2026-04-25 | 30 | — | — |
| 2026-04-26 | — | 24 | — |
| 2026-04-27 | 29 | 23 | — |
| 2026-04-30 | 33 | 29 | 19 |
| 2026-05-01 | 34 | 28 | 21 |
| 2026-05-02 | 38 | 30 | 21 |
| 2026-05-07 | — | — | 20 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Stagflation +4pp 34→38¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 35% probability reflects whether economic conditions in the United States will meet specific benchmarks by end-of-year 2026. The current level suggests markets view a moderate-to-low likelihood of the specified economic outcome, based on recent trading activity weighted toward flight cancellations and political developments. Key drivers of this assessment include near-term transportation disruptions—notably high cancellation rates in early May—and midterm political signals like Senate endorsements that often correlate with economic sentiment. The probability will likely shift based on monthly economic data releases, labor reports, and any systemic disruptions to travel or commerce through November 2026. Uncertainty centers on whether current economic headwinds will persist, stabilize, or intensify over the remainder of the year.

### Key factors

- Flight cancellations for the week ending May 8, 2026 are priced at 84% probability above 1600 but only 65% above 2100, suggesting moderate operational stress in transportation
- Political activity around the Nebraska Senate race (Dan Osborn/Bernie Sanders endorsement at 44%) may indicate broader economic discontent or activism levels
- The probability has remained stable around 35% despite near-term data, suggesting traders view current conditions as neither dramatically improving nor worsening
- Monthly employment reports, inflation data, and GDP revisions through December 2026 will be primary drivers of probability shifts
- No single resolution date is specified, indicating this aggregates expectations across multiple concurrent economic metrics rather than one discrete event

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/econpath
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=econpath

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.