# CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026

> Exactly 2.8% leads at 40%, runner-up 12% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/econstatcorecpiyoy
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:50.191Z
Category: economy
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-11

## Headline

- Leader: Exactly 2.8% at 40%
- Runner-up: Exactly 3.1% at 12%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $694

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.8% | 40¢ | ±0 | $694 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-core-year-over-year-in-jun-2026-exactly-28-kalshi-kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26jun-t2.8 |
| Exactly 3.1% | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-core-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-31-kalshi-kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26aug-t3.1 |
| Exactly 2.7% | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-core-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-27-kalshi-kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26aug-t2.7 |
| Exactly 3.4% | 9¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-core-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-34-kalshi-kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26aug-t3.4 |
| Exactly 2.6% | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-core-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-26-kalshi-kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26aug-t2.6 |
| Exactly 2.5% | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-core-year-over-year-in-jul-2026-exactly-25-kalshi-kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26jul-t2.5 |
| Exactly 2.6% | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-core-year-over-year-in-jul-2026-exactly-26-kalshi-kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26jul-t2.6 |
| Exactly 3.0% | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-core-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-30-kalshi-kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26aug-t3.0 |
| Exactly 3.3% | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-core-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-33-kalshi-kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26aug-t3.3 |
| Exactly 3.6% | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-core-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-36-kalshi-kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26aug-t3.6 |
| Exactly 2.4% | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-core-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-24-kalshi-kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26aug-t2.4 |
| Exactly 3.5% | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-core-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-35-kalshi-kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26aug-t3.5 |
| Exactly 3.7% | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-core-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-37-kalshi-kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26aug-t3.7 |
| Exactly 2.4% | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-core-year-over-year-in-jul-2026-exactly-24-kalshi-kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26jul-t2.4 |
| Exactly 2.7% | 6¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-core-year-over-year-in-jul-2026-exactly-27-kalshi-kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26jul-t2.7 |
| Exactly 2.2% | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-core-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-22-kalshi-kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26aug-t2.2 |
| Exactly 2.3% | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-core-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-23-kalshi-kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26aug-t2.3 |
| Exactly 2.3% | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-core-year-over-year-in-jul-2026-exactly-23-kalshi-kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26jul-t2.3 |
| Exactly 3.2% | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-core-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-32-kalshi-kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26aug-t3.2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Exactly 2.8% | Exactly 3.4% | Exactly 2.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | — | — | 7 |
| 2026-05-29 | 20 | — | 8 |
| 2026-05-31 | — | 7 | — |
| 2026-06-01 | — | 7 | — |
| 2026-06-02 | — | 6 | — |
| 2026-06-11 | — | 4 | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 21 | — | 7 |
| 2026-06-17 | 26 | — | 8 |
| 2026-06-18 | — | 9 | 8 |
| 2026-06-20 | 28 | — | — |
| 2026-06-26 | 31 | — | — |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Exactly 2.8% +4pp 26→30¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 8% probability indicates traders assess a low likelihood that core CPI year-over-year inflation will be exactly at a specific target level in August 2026. The recent data points show core inflation readings around 2.2-2.8%, suggesting the market expects continued moderation or stability in core price pressures. Key factors influencing this assessment include the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, wage growth trends, and supply-chain conditions. The August 2026 CPI release, scheduled for early September 2026, will definitively resolve this contract. Until then, traders are weighing the path of inflation over the coming months against the specific price target embedded in this contract. The low probability reflects either market consensus around a different inflation outcome, or uncertainty about which exact level core CPI will reach.

### Key factors

- Core inflation readings in April and June 2026 ranged 2.2-2.8%, establishing the recent trend traders are extrapolating forward
- The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and forward guidance between now and August will influence whether inflation accelerates, stabilizes, or declines further
- Wage growth data and labor market conditions directly impact service-sector inflation, a major component of core CPI
- Supply-chain disruptions or commodity price movements could shift inflation expectations before the August data release
- The specific price target of this contract may not align with market consensus on the most likely outcome, explaining the low 8% probability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=econstatcorecpiyoy

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