# CPI month-over-month in Apr 2026

> Exactly -0.1% leads at 34%, runner-up 34% across 17 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/econstatcpi
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.716Z
Category: economy
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-11

## Headline

- Leader: Exactly -0.1% at 34%
- Runner-up: Exactly -0.2% at 34%
- Outcomes: 17 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $804

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly -0.1% | 34¢ | −1pp | $436 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-month-over-month-in-jun-2026-exactly-01-kalshi-kxeconstatcpi-26jun-t-0.1 |
| Exactly -0.2% | 34¢ | ±0 | $4 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-month-over-month-in-jun-2026-exactly-02-kalshi-kxeconstatcpi-26jun-t-0.2 |
| Exactly 0.2% | 22¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-month-over-month-in-aug-2026-exactly-02-kalshi-kxeconstatcpi-26aug-t0.2 |
| Exactly 0.3% | 13¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-month-over-month-in-aug-2026-exactly-03-kalshi-kxeconstatcpi-26aug-t0.3 |
| Exactly 0.0% | 12¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-month-over-month-in-jul-2026-exactly-00-kalshi-kxeconstatcpi-26jul-t0.0 |
| Exactly 0.1% | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-month-over-month-in-jul-2026-exactly-01-kalshi-kxeconstatcpi-26jul-t0.1 |
| Exactly 0.5% | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-month-over-month-in-jul-2026-exactly-05-kalshi-kxeconstatcpi-26jul-t0.5 |
| Exactly -0.3% | 10¢ | +3pp | $164 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-month-over-month-in-jun-2026-exactly-03-kalshi-kxeconstatcpi-26jun-t-0.3 |
| Exactly 0.0% | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-month-over-month-in-aug-2026-exactly-00-kalshi-kxeconstatcpi-26aug-t0.0 |
| Exactly 0.1% | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-month-over-month-in-aug-2026-exactly-01-kalshi-kxeconstatcpi-26aug-t0.1 |
| Exactly 0.5% | 9¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-month-over-month-in-aug-2026-exactly-05-kalshi-kxeconstatcpi-26aug-t0.5 |
| Exactly 0.6% | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-month-over-month-in-aug-2026-exactly-06-kalshi-kxeconstatcpi-26aug-t0.6 |
| Exactly 0.2% | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-month-over-month-in-jul-2026-exactly-02-kalshi-kxeconstatcpi-26jul-t0.2 |
| Exactly 0.4% | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-month-over-month-in-aug-2026-exactly-04-kalshi-kxeconstatcpi-26aug-t0.4 |
| Exactly -0.1% | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-month-over-month-in-jul-2026-exactly-01-kalshi-kxeconstatcpi-26jul-t-0.1 |
| Exactly 0.0% | 6¢ | −1pp | $200 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-month-over-month-in-jun-2026-exactly-00-kalshi-kxeconstatcpi-26jun-t0.0 |
| Exactly 0.3% | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-month-over-month-in-jul-2026-exactly-03-kalshi-kxeconstatcpi-26jul-t0.3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Exactly -0.1% | Exactly -0.2% | Exactly 0.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 7 | — | — |
| 2026-06-02 | 5 | 1 | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 14 | 8 | — |
| 2026-06-13 | 16 | 9 | 13 |
| 2026-06-19 | 34 | 32 | — |
| 2026-06-24 | 26 | 32 | — |
| 2026-06-26 | 26 | — | — |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Exactly 0.0% +6pp 8→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Exactly -0.1% −5pp 28→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Exactly 0.0% −5pp 12→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Exactly -0.1% −4pp 34→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Exactly -0.2% −4pp 32→28¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

A 20% probability indicates traders expect April 2026's month-over-month CPI increase to fall at or below 0.5%, with a much lower chance of exceeding 0.6%. This reflects recent inflation trends and base effects. The market shows higher confidence in year-over-year inflation staying near 3.8% and remaining above 3.6%, but minimal expectation of reaching 4.0%. Month-over-month movements depend on energy prices, seasonal adjustments, and wage pressures during this period. The April 2026 CPI report release will provide the definitive data point, likely arriving in early May 2026, immediately resolving all related contracts.

### Key factors

- Year-over-year inflation traders price at 3.8%, suggesting modest month-over-month growth necessary to maintain that rate given April 2025 base effects
- Probability of MoM exceeding 0.6% prices at only 21¢, indicating strong consensus against larger monthly moves
- 52¢ probability for exceeding 0.5% MoM suggests uncertainty clusters around the 0.4-0.6% range rather than decisively lower or higher
- Only 3¢ probability for YoY above 4.0% reflects trader conviction that year-end inflation remains firmly below that threshold
- Trading volume concentrates on 0.5-0.6% thresholds ($2.8-2.9K daily), indicating this is the primary range of disagreement

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/econstatcpi
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=econstatcpi

## License

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