# CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026

> Exactly 3.8% leads at 45%, runner-up 27% across 17 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/econstatcpiyoy
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.675Z
Category: economy
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-11

## Headline

- Leader: Exactly 3.8% at 45%
- Runner-up: Exactly 3.7% at 27%
- Outcomes: 17 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3.8% | 45¢ | +3pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/cpi-year-over-year-in-jun-2026-exactly-38-kalshi-kxeconstatcpiyoy-26jun-t3.8 |
| Exactly 3.7% | 27¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/cpi-year-over-year-in-jun-2026-exactly-37-kalshi-kxeconstatcpiyoy-26jun-t3.7 |
| Exactly 3.9% | 13¢ | −1pp | $716 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-year-over-year-in-jun-2026-exactly-39-kalshi-kxeconstatcpiyoy-26jun-t3.9 |
| Exactly 3.7% | 12¢ | +4pp | $36 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-year-over-year-in-jul-2026-exactly-37-kalshi-kxeconstatcpiyoy-26jul-t3.7 |
| Exactly 3.5% | 11¢ | +4pp | $201 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-year-over-year-in-jul-2026-exactly-35-kalshi-kxeconstatcpiyoy-26jul-t3.5 |
| Exactly 3.6% | 10¢ | +3pp | $201 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-year-over-year-in-jul-2026-exactly-36-kalshi-kxeconstatcpiyoy-26jul-t3.6 |
| Exactly 3.1% | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-31-kalshi-kxeconstatcpiyoy-26aug-t3.1 |
| Exactly 3.4% | 8¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-34-kalshi-kxeconstatcpiyoy-26aug-t3.4 |
| Exactly 3.3% | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-33-kalshi-kxeconstatcpiyoy-26aug-t3.3 |
| Exactly 2.9% | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-29-kalshi-kxeconstatcpiyoy-26aug-t2.9 |
| Exactly 3.0% | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-30-kalshi-kxeconstatcpiyoy-26aug-t3.0 |
| Exactly 2.0% | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-20-kalshi-kxeconstatcpiyoy-26aug-t2.0 |
| Exactly 2.2% | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-22-kalshi-kxeconstatcpiyoy-26aug-t2.2 |
| Exactly 2.3% | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-23-kalshi-kxeconstatcpiyoy-26aug-t2.3 |
| Exactly 2.8% | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-28-kalshi-kxeconstatcpiyoy-26aug-t2.8 |
| Exactly 3.2% | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-year-over-year-in-aug-2026-exactly-32-kalshi-kxeconstatcpiyoy-26aug-t3.2 |
| Exactly 4.4% | 3¢ | +1pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/cpi-year-over-year-in-jun-2026-exactly-44-kalshi-kxeconstatcpiyoy-26jun-t4.4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Exactly 3.8% | Exactly 3.7% | Exactly 3.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2026-06-12 | 15 | 5 | 28 |
| 2026-06-18 | 36 | 28 | 17 |
| 2026-06-19 | 37 | — | 16 |
| 2026-06-25 | 43 | 24 | 9 |
| 2026-06-26 | 46 | 27 | — |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Exactly 3.7% −11pp 24→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Exactly 3.7% +6pp 17→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Exactly 3.9% −6pp 20→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Exactly 3.8% +5pp 37→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Exactly 3.7% −4pp 28→24¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 7% probability represents the market's current assessment that the headline Consumer Price Index will increase by exactly 2.7% year-over-year when June 2026 data is released. The current pricing reflects expectations that inflation will remain relatively stable near the Federal Reserve's target, though the low probability assigned to any single outcome point indicates substantial uncertainty about the exact reading. The June CPI release—scheduled for early July 2026—will provide critical data on whether recent inflation trends have continued, accelerated, or moderated. Market participants are weighing factors including recent monetary policy decisions, labor market dynamics, and energy price movements. The concentration of contract prices around 2.6-3.0% suggests consensus clustering, but the fragmentation across multiple specific outcomes explains why the single 2.7% contract carries only 7% odds despite representing the modal expectation.

### Key factors

- The June CPI release date (typically early July) serves as the hard resolution event; prior weekly jobless claims, producer price data, and energy prices will provide directional signals
- Recent Fed policy stance and forward guidance on interest rates influence expectations for the inflation trajectory between now and June
- Energy commodity prices and supply disruptions could materially shift the 2-3% forecast range, as gasoline and heating costs feed directly into headline CPI
- Wage growth trends and labor market tightness in May-June will affect core CPI momentum and potentially headline readings
- The distribution of open contracts shows expectations concentrated 2.6-3.0%, making outcomes outside this band statistically less probable but not precluded by market data

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=econstatcpiyoy

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