# Unemployment rate in May 2026

> Exactly 4.3% leads at 35%, runner-up 15% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 40 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/econstatu3
Updated: 2026-06-08T03:20:10.842Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-04

## Headline

- Leader: Exactly 4.3% at 35%
- Runner-up: Exactly 4.5% at 15%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $175

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 4.3% | 35¢ | +7pp | $175 | kalshi | /markets/unemployment-rate-in-jun-2026-exactly-43-kalshi-kxeconstatu3-26jun-t4.3 |
| Exactly 4.5% | 15¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/unemployment-rate-in-oct-2026-exactly-45-kalshi-kxeconstatu3-26oct-t4.5 |
| Exactly 4.4% | 14¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/unemployment-rate-in-oct-2026-exactly-44-kalshi-kxeconstatu3-26oct-t4.4 |
| Exactly 4.9% | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/unemployment-rate-in-oct-2026-exactly-49-kalshi-kxeconstatu3-26oct-t4.9 |
| Exactly 4.6% | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/unemployment-rate-in-nov-2026-exactly-46-kalshi-kxeconstatu3-26nov-t4.6 |
| Exactly 4.9% | 7¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/unemployment-rate-in-nov-2026-exactly-49-kalshi-kxeconstatu3-26nov-t4.9 |
| Exactly 3.6% | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/unemployment-rate-in-nov-2026-exactly-36-kalshi-kxeconstatu3-26nov-t3.6 |
| Exactly 4.4% | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/unemployment-rate-in-nov-2026-exactly-44-kalshi-kxeconstatu3-26nov-t4.4 |
| Exactly 4.5% | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/unemployment-rate-in-nov-2026-exactly-45-kalshi-kxeconstatu3-26nov-t4.5 |
| Exactly 4.7% | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/unemployment-rate-in-nov-2026-exactly-47-kalshi-kxeconstatu3-26nov-t4.7 |
| Exactly 3.3% | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/unemployment-rate-in-nov-2026-exactly-33-kalshi-kxeconstatu3-26nov-t3.3 |
| Exactly 4.6% | 3¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/unemployment-rate-in-oct-2026-exactly-46-kalshi-kxeconstatu3-26oct-t4.6 |
| Exactly 4.7% | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/unemployment-rate-in-oct-2026-exactly-47-kalshi-kxeconstatu3-26oct-t4.7 |
| Exactly 4.8% | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/unemployment-rate-in-oct-2026-exactly-48-kalshi-kxeconstatu3-26oct-t4.8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Exactly 4.3% | Exactly 4.5% | Exactly 4.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 16 | 5 | — |
| 2026-05-22 | — | 3 | 14 |
| 2026-05-23 | — | 15 | — |
| 2026-05-25 | 17 | — | — |
| 2026-06-01 | 18 | — | — |
| 2026-06-07 | 38 | — | — |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · Exactly 4.3% +7pp 18→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Exactly 4.3% +7pp 31→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Exactly 4.3% +6pp 25→31¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 29% probability reflects market expectations that the May 2026 unemployment rate will be exactly 3.9%, based on trading activity on Kalshi contracts. The prediction centers on a narrow range between 3.9% and 4.3%, suggesting relatively stable labor market conditions. Employment outcomes depend primarily on recent job creation trends, initial jobless claims patterns, and broader economic growth momentum. The unemployment rate will be officially released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in early June 2026, resolving all uncertainty around this metric. Leading economic indicators from late April and May—including payroll reports, labor force participation rates, and any recession signals—will significantly influence the final reading and determine whether actual unemployment tracks toward or away from the 3.9% consensus estimate.

### Key factors

- May 2026 BLS employment report will show the exact unemployment rate; official release scheduled for early June 2026
- Recent monthly job creation figures and initial jobless claims data through May will directly drive the unemployment reading
- Labor force participation rate changes could offset headline employment gains or losses
- Any significant economic shocks or policy changes between now and the May data collection period could shift outcomes
- The tight contract pricing (ranging 4¢–9¢) indicates low absolute probability for any single outcome, reflecting high uncertainty

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/econstatu3
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=econstatu3
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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