# Ecuador vs. Curaçao

> Ecuador leads at 74%, runner-up 14% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ecuador-vs-curaao
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.412Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-21

## Headline

- Leader: Ecuador at 74%
- Runner-up: Draw (Ecuador vs. Curaçao) at 14%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ecuador | 74¢ | −1pp | $259 | polymarket | /markets/ecuador-vs-curaao-ecuador-polymarket-0xa90ce8b69a218dced329076162df3b79f99596d1dc71d93bd30a64a2c8b6ba3e |
| Draw (Ecuador vs. Curaçao) | 14¢ | ±0 | $248 | polymarket | /markets/ecuador-vs-curaao-draw-ecuador-vs-curaao-polymarket-0xa6cd933c6cc3487b1a8505ecfad35d38428cbc9e3df01cc81fa10219b8724d25 |
| Curaçao | 11¢ | +3pp | $11K | polymarket | /markets/ecuador-vs-curaao-curaao-polymarket-0x9e030ad2c9ecc0037a1056f1641d913bddd5c7b26c100267fb8b22a4fb64936e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Ecuador | Draw (Ecuador vs. Curaçao) | Curaçao |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 77 | — | 11 |
| 2026-05-01 | 76 | 20 | 12 |
| 2026-05-02 | 77 | 19 | 12 |
| 2026-05-08 | 76 | 15 | 11 |
| 2026-05-09 | 75 | 15 | — |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Curaçao −6pp 14→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Ecuador −5pp 81→76¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Draw (Ecuador vs. Curaçao) −5pp 20→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Ecuador +4pp 77→81¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Curaçao +3pp 8→11¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the estimated probability that Ecuador will win a match against Curaçao, based on aggregated trading prices from prediction markets. The high probability reflects expectations that Ecuador, as the stronger team on paper, should advance. The current level would move if Ecuador underperforms in pre-match analysis, if recent injury reports emerge, or if betting patterns shift based on updated team form. The primary driver of certainty will be the match result itself, which determines the outcome. Until the match is played, the probability reflects historical performance metrics, current rankings, and real-time market sentiment from participants placing capital at risk on the outcome.

### Key factors

- Ecuador's FIFA ranking and historical head-to-head record against Curaçao relative to market expectations
- Polymarket volume concentration: 93¢ Germany contract shows $196 24h volume while Ecuador contracts show $0 24h volume, indicating thin liquidity in Ecuador outcomes
- The 81% probability competes against 16% for another outcome, suggesting a two-way market rather than a three-way split
- Absence of recent trading activity on direct Ecuador matchups ($0 volume on two Ecuador contracts) implies the 81% figure may reflect older price discovery
- Market structure anomaly: contracts labeled 'Germany vs. Curaçao' dominate volume, raising questions about whether these prices correctly reflect Ecuador matchup probabilities

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ecuador-vs-curaao
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ecuador-vs-curaao

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.