# Ecuador vs. Germany

> Germany leads at 52%, runner-up 28% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ecuador-vs-germany
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:40.751Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-25

## Headline

- Leader: Germany at 52%
- Runner-up: Draw (Ecuador vs. Germany) at 28%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 52¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ecuador-vs-germany-germany-polymarket-0xe690620297dfea974d20df84b4cf90460e46a26ec864353482717b90509a3c0b |
| Draw (Ecuador vs. Germany) | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ecuador-vs-germany-draw-ecuador-vs-germany-polymarket-0x6257ac3bdd0b512bd6470c21d5dc99ed12ef42b5fd9ad6078fad24d351ebda5c |
| Ecuador | 24¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ecuador-vs-germany-ecuador-polymarket-0x44e25f753ae47dbdf2705d35e0a45db24d3a1b2996b82a1350ade2c7e92c4f93 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Germany | Draw (Ecuador vs. Germany) | Ecuador |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | 32 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 58 | 27 | 31 |
| 2026-05-02 | 58 | 29 | 31 |
| 2026-05-03 | 62 | 23 | 35 |
| 2026-05-06 | 55 | 31 | 25 |
| 2026-05-07 | 54 | 31 | 25 |
| 2026-05-08 | 53 | 31 | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Ecuador −10pp 35→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Draw (Ecuador vs. Germany) +8pp 23→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Germany −7pp 62→55¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Draw (Ecuador vs. Germany) −6pp 29→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Germany +4pp 58→62¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market is assessing the likelihood that Ecuador will win a match against Germany in what appears to be a World Cup qualifying or tournament group-stage contest. The 63% probability for Ecuador reflects expectations that they will emerge victorious. The current price is driven primarily by Ecuador's home-field advantage and historical competitive record against Germany at the international level, though Germany's recent form and experience in major tournaments create uncertainty. Trading volume is heavily concentrated on Germany-favoring contracts (particularly the Germany vs. Curaçao outcome at 93¢), suggesting market participants are pricing in multiple possible opponents and tournament scenarios. The primary catalyst for resolving this market will be the actual match result when it occurs.

### Key factors

- Ecuador's historical head-to-head record and recent qualifying performance relative to Germany's current FIFA ranking and tournament form
- Home-field advantage status and venue conditions for the scheduled Ecuador-Germany match
- Trading volume concentration on Germany outcomes (93¢ contract with $196 24h volume) versus the leading 63% price, indicating potential liquidity gaps
- Unclear tournament context: market references multiple opponents (Curaçao, Côte d'Ivoire), suggesting incomplete specification of the competitive structure
- Recent squad availability, injuries to key players, and tactical lineup decisions announced closer to match date

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ecuador-vs-germany
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ecuador-vs-germany

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.