# Will CSD Independiente del Valle win the Ecuador LigaPro

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 20% across 9 contracts — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/eculp
Updated: 2026-09-20T20:20:49.064Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-13

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona SC | 14¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-barcelona-sc-win-the-ecuador-ligapro-barcelon-kalshi-kxeculp-26-bsc |
| CS Emelec | 33¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cs-emelec-win-the-ecuador-ligapro-cs-emelec-kalshi-kxeculp-26-cse |
| CD Cuenca | 36¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cd-cuenca-win-the-ecuador-ligapro-cd-cuenca-kalshi-kxeculp-26-cue |
| CSD Independiente del Valle | 34¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-csd-independiente-del-valle-win-the-ecuador-l-kalshi-kxeculp-26-ind |
| LDU Quito | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ldu-quito-win-the-ecuador-ligapro-ldu-quito-kalshi-kxeculp-26-ldu |
| CSD Macara | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-csd-macara-win-the-ecuador-ligapro-csd-macara-kalshi-kxeculp-26-mac |
| SD Aucas | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sd-aucas-win-the-ecuador-ligapro-sd-aucas-kalshi-kxeculp-26-sda |
| CD Tecnico Universitario | 39¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cd-tecnico-universitario-win-the-ecuador-liga-kalshi-kxeculp-26-tec |
| CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 9¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cd-universidad-catolica-del-ecuador-win-the-e-kalshi-kxeculp-26-uni |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | 32 |
| 2026-09-12 | 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | 17 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador +3pp 6→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the estimated chance that CSD Independiente del Valle will win the Ecuador LigaPro championship. The 19% probability reflects modest competitive positioning compared to other contenders in what appears to be a competitive league season. The current level is primarily influenced by recent team performance metrics and historical competitiveness. Key factors pushing this probability would include consistent winning streaks, improved goal differential, or favorable head-to-head records against top competitors. The main catalyst for resolving uncertainty will be the accumulation of match results throughout the remainder of the season, with particular attention to performances against higher-ranked contenders like CD Cuenca (36¢) and CS Emelec (33¢). Market pricing suggests Independiente del Valle is neither the favorite nor an outsider, indicating mid-tier competitive status with realistic title chances dependent on sustained performance.

### Key factors

- Current league table position and points accumulation relative to CD Cuenca, CS Emelec, and other top-six competitors
- Head-to-head results and goal differential in direct matchups against the three highest-probability contenders
- Recent form over the past 5-10 matches, including consistency in wins versus draws or losses
- Injury status of key players and roster availability for critical upcoming fixtures
- Goal-scoring efficiency and defensive record compared to the league average and direct competitors

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/eculp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=eculp

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.