# Barcelona vs Mushuc Runa Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 18 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/eculpgame
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.875Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $593
- Resolved: yes

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 14¢ | — | $275 | kalshi | /markets/ind-del-valle-vs-barcelona-winner-barcelona-kalshi-kxeculpgame-26may09indbsc-bsc |
| Cuenca | 21¢ | ±0 | $104 | kalshi | /markets/guayaquil-city-vs-cuenca-winner-cuenca-kalshi-kxeculpgame-26may09guacue-cue |
| Uni Catolica | 31¢ | +3pp | $68 | kalshi | /markets/aucas-vs-uni-catolica-winner-uni-catolica-kalshi-kxeculpgame-26may09sdauni-uni |
| Macara | 36¢ | — | $47 | kalshi | /markets/manta-vs-macara-winner-macara-kalshi-kxeculpgame-26may10manmac-mac |
| Tie | 22¢ | — | $37 | kalshi | /markets/ind-del-valle-vs-barcelona-winner-tie-kalshi-kxeculpgame-26may09indbsc-tie |
| Guayaquil City | 46¢ | +5pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/guayaquil-city-vs-cuenca-winner-guayaquil-city-kalshi-kxeculpgame-26may09guacue-gua |
| Emelec | 51¢ | — | $21 | kalshi | /markets/emelec-vs-libertad-loja-winner-emelec-kalshi-kxeculpgame-26may10cselib-cse |
| Tecnico Uni | 47¢ | +2pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/tecnico-uni-vs-delfin-winner-tecnico-uni-kalshi-kxeculpgame-26may09tecdsc-tec |
| Manta | 28¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/manta-vs-macara-winner-manta-kalshi-kxeculpgame-26may10manmac-man |
| Tie | 26¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/manta-vs-macara-winner-tie-kalshi-kxeculpgame-26may10manmac-tie |
| Libertad Loja | 17¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/emelec-vs-libertad-loja-winner-libertad-loja-kalshi-kxeculpgame-26may10cselib-lib |
| Tie | 23¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/emelec-vs-libertad-loja-winner-tie-kalshi-kxeculpgame-26may10cselib-tie |
| Ind. del Valle | 59¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/ind-del-valle-vs-barcelona-winner-ind-del-valle-kalshi-kxeculpgame-26may09indbsc-ind |
| Aucas | 38¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/aucas-vs-uni-catolica-winner-aucas-kalshi-kxeculpgame-26may09sdauni-sda |
| Tie | 27¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/aucas-vs-uni-catolica-winner-tie-kalshi-kxeculpgame-26may09sdauni-tie |
| Tie | 29¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/guayaquil-city-vs-cuenca-winner-tie-kalshi-kxeculpgame-26may09guacue-tie |
| Delfin | 21¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/tecnico-uni-vs-delfin-winner-delfin-kalshi-kxeculpgame-26may09tecdsc-dsc |
| Tie | 28¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/tecnico-uni-vs-delfin-winner-tie-kalshi-kxeculpgame-26may09tecdsc-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 28 |
| 2026-05-07 | 30 |
| 2026-05-08 | 27 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Guayaquil City +5pp 41→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Tie +4pp 22→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Uni Catolica +3pp 26→29¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/eculpgame
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=eculpgame

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.