# Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q1 2026 be above 12.5%

> Above 5% leads at 82%, runner-up 55% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 33 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/efftariff
Updated: 2026-07-09T21:20:50.163Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above 5% at 82%
- Runner-up: Above 7.5% at 55%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5% | 82¢ | +6pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-effective-tariff-rate-customs-duties-c-kalshi-kxefftariff-26jul30-t5 |
| Above 7.5% | 55¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-effective-tariff-rate-customs-duties-c-kalshi-kxefftariff-26jul30-t7.5 |
| Above 10% | 7¢ | ±0 | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-effective-tariff-rate-customs-duties-c-kalshi-kxefftariff-26jul30-t10 |
| Above 12.5% | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-effective-tariff-rate-customs-duties-c-kalshi-kxefftariff-26jul30-t12.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 5% | Above 7.5% | Above 10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | — | — | 16 |
| 2026-06-10 | — | 79 | — |
| 2026-06-15 | 75 | 42 | 10 |
| 2026-06-25 | 76 | 62 | 9 |
| 2026-07-03 | 64 | 48 | — |
| 2026-07-04 | 65 | 51 | 11 |
| 2026-07-09 | 77 | 55 | 8 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-08 · Above 7.5% +8pp 43→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · Above 5% +6pp 65→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Above 5% +6pp 71→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-04 · Above 10% +5pp 6→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-05 · Above 7.5% −5pp 51→46¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 60% probability that US effective tariff rates exceeded 12.5% in Q1 2026, calculated as customs duties collected divided by nominal goods imports. The current price reflects expectations about tariff policy implementation and trade dynamics in early 2026. Upward pressure on this rate could come from newly imposed duties or enforcement actions, while downward pressure would result from increased import volumes or lower duty collections. The resolution hinges on official US Census Bureau data releases for Q1 2026 trade figures, typically published in subsequent months. Current trading shows lower confidence in higher threshold scenarios (above 10% at 6%, above 12.5% at 3%), suggesting markets view substantial tariff escalation as unlikely despite the base case exceeding 5%.

### Key factors

- Q1 2026 tariff policy framework and any new duties implemented relative to baseline rates
- Relationship between nominal import volumes in Q1 2026 and customs duty collections
- Historical US effective tariff rates and deviation from recent trends in early 2026
- Contract price discrepancy showing 60% probability for above 5% but only 3% for above 12.5%, indicating steep probability decline at higher thresholds
- US Census Bureau data release timing and accuracy of preliminary versus final Q1 2026 trade statistics

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/efftariff
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=efftariff
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

## License

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