# Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/egypt-vs-ir-iran-ir-iran
Updated: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $854

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IR Iran | 25¢ | −3pp | $854 | polymarket | /markets/egypt-vs-ir-iran-ir-iran-polymarket-0x3984132d5d0c5be60bc0ad1dff63e44197b5f39a6135329490a0a75c0a372f06 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 35 |
| 2026-06-05 | 28 |
| 2026-06-12 | 28 |
| 2026-06-16 | 25 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-16 · IR Iran −3pp 28→25¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the market's estimate that Iran will defeat Egypt in an upcoming match. At 27%, the market is pricing Iran as a clear underdog against Egypt. The probability reflects Iran's recent competitive struggles and Egypt's historical strength in regional football, though Iran's performance has been volatile. Key drivers of this level include each team's current roster quality, recent head-to-head records, and their form leading into the fixture. The main catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the match result itself. Market participants will likely adjust their position based on official team lineups, any late injury announcements, or recent competitive performance in the days immediately before kickoff.

### Key factors

- Iran's historical win rate against Egypt in official competitions and recent head-to-head matchups
- Current FIFA ranking differential and recent qualification performance by each nation
- Availability of key players and reported injuries to starting lineups
- Venue location (home advantage) and travel conditions for the match
- Recent form trajectory of Iran measured by wins/losses in prior 5-10 competitive matches

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/egypt-vs-ir-iran-ir-iran
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=egypt-vs-ir-iran-ir-iran
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.