# Egypt vs. IR Iran

> Draw (Egypt vs. IR Iran) leads at 41%, runner-up 35% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/egypt-vs-ir-iran
Updated: 2026-05-09T06:35:27.821Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-27

## Headline

- Leader: Draw (Egypt vs. IR Iran) at 41%
- Runner-up: Egypt at 35%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (Egypt vs. IR Iran) | 41¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/egypt-vs-ir-iran-draw-egypt-vs-ir-iran-polymarket-0x2afe86f96be81a0d89ed776bedbd52d1c75bc47b49e6f0f791ddd009f52faf23 |
| Egypt | 35¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/egypt-vs-ir-iran-egypt-polymarket-0x9623b379f3e25ffa6206f8bc7aedeecd67580944645151350e06cb3efd95c090 |
| IR Iran | 34¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/egypt-vs-ir-iran-ir-iran-polymarket-0x3984132d5d0c5be60bc0ad1dff63e44197b5f39a6135329490a0a75c0a372f06 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Draw (Egypt vs. IR Iran) | Egypt | IR Iran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 39 | 41 | 38 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | — | 40 |
| 2026-05-06 | — | 37 | 35 |
| 2026-05-07 | 39 | 37 | 35 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 36 | 34 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · IR Iran −4pp 39→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Egypt −4pp 41→37¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability indicates that bettors estimate a 41% chance Egypt will win in a matchup against Iran, with Iran favored at 39%. The close pricing reflects uncertainty about team form, recent competitive history, and tactical matchups. The probability could shift based on team announcements, injury reports, or pre-match performance data in the days leading up to the fixture. Key drivers include squad availability, historical head-to-head records, and any recent tournaments or qualifiers that signal current competitive standing. The scheduled match date and official confirmation of participating rosters will be the primary catalyst to finalize odds and resolve residual uncertainty in current pricing.

### Key factors

- Polymarket contracts show a narrow 2-percentage-point gap between Egypt (41%) and Iran (39%), indicating near-parity in perceived win probability
- Very low trading volumes on Egypt-Iran specific contracts ($2 on Kalshi) suggest limited market depth and potential for price moves on new information
- Related Iran contracts against New Zealand show Iran at 53% win probability, providing indirect context on perceived team strength
- No scheduled match date or official fixture confirmation is evident from the data provided, which may explain why uncertainty remains elevated
- The presence of multiple Iran matchups across platforms (vs. New Zealand, vs. Belgium) indicates these teams are active in current competitive cycles

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/egypt-vs-ir-iran
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=egypt-vs-ir-iran
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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