# Will US existing home sales for April 2026 be above 3.70M

> Above 3.80M leads at 93%, runner-up 90% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ehsales
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:51.223Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-09

## Headline

- Leader: Above 3.80M at 93%
- Runner-up: Above 3.90M at 90%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.80M | 93¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-existing-home-sales-for-june-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxehsales-26jul09-t3.80 |
| Above 3.90M | 90¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-existing-home-sales-for-june-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxehsales-26jul09-t3.90 |
| Above 4.00M | 76¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-existing-home-sales-for-june-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxehsales-26jul09-t4.00 |
| Above 4.10M | 53¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-existing-home-sales-for-june-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxehsales-26jul09-t4.10 |
| Above 4.20M | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-existing-home-sales-for-june-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxehsales-26jul09-t4.20 |
| Above 4.30M | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-existing-home-sales-for-june-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxehsales-26jul09-t4.30 |
| Above 4.40M | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-existing-home-sales-for-june-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxehsales-26jul09-t4.40 |
| Above 4.50M | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-existing-home-sales-for-june-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxehsales-26jul09-t4.50 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 3.80M | Above 3.90M | Above 4.00M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 72 | 69 | 76 |
| 2026-06-10 | — | 90 | — |
| 2026-06-14 | — | — | 76 |
| 2026-06-18 | 93 | 91 | 76 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 90 | 75 |
| 2026-06-26 | 93 | 90 | 76 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Above 4.10M +4pp 51→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Above 4.10M −3pp 54→51¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether existing home sales in the United States will reach or exceed 3.70 million units for April 2026. The current 35% probability reflects skepticism about achieving this threshold. Home sales are influenced primarily by mortgage rates and housing inventory levels. Higher rates typically reduce buyer demand, while limited inventory can constrain transaction volume. The National Association of Realtors releases existing home sales data monthly, with April 2026 figures expected in late May 2026. This release will directly resolve the contract. Historical context matters: existing home sales have fluctuated between roughly 3.5-4.5 million units annually in recent years depending on rate environments and inventory conditions. The outcome will depend on whether market conditions in April supported sufficient transaction velocity to cross the 3.70M threshold.

### Key factors

- Mortgage rates in April 2026 and their trend relative to prior months, as rates above 7% typically suppress buyer activity
- Inventory levels of available homes for sale, since limited supply constrains the total number of possible transactions
- The National Association of Realtors' May 2026 data release will provide the definitive April existing home sales figure
- Year-over-year comparison to April 2025 sales volume and whether seasonal patterns held consistent
- Credit conditions and lending standards, which affect buyer qualification rates and purchasing power

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ehsales
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ehsales

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.