# Will Zaglebie Lubin win the Ekstraklasa

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 10 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ekstraklasa
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.128Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-07

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogon Szczecin | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pogon-szczecin-win-the-ekstraklasa-pogon-szcz-kalshi-kxekstraklasa-26-psz |
| Zaglebie Lubin | 17¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-zaglebie-lubin-win-the-ekstraklasa-zaglebie-l-kalshi-kxekstraklasa-26-zag |
| Lech Poznan | 80¢ | +17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lech-poznan-win-the-ekstraklasa-lech-poznan-kalshi-kxekstraklasa-26-lpo |
| Jagiellonia | 20¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jagiellonia-win-the-ekstraklasa-jagiellonia-kalshi-kxekstraklasa-26-jag |
| Wisla Plock | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wisla-plock-win-the-ekstraklasa-wisla-plock-kalshi-kxekstraklasa-26-plo |
| Radomiak Radom | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-radomiak-radom-win-the-ekstraklasa-radomiak-r-kalshi-kxekstraklasa-26-rad |
| Legia Warszawa | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legia-warszawa-win-the-ekstraklasa-legia-wars-kalshi-kxekstraklasa-26-leg |
| Gornik Zabrze | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gornik-zabrze-win-the-ekstraklasa-gornik-zabr-kalshi-kxekstraklasa-26-gor |
| Korona Kielce | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-korona-kielce-win-the-ekstraklasa-korona-kiel-kalshi-kxekstraklasa-26-kor |
| Czestochowa | 20¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-czestochowa-win-the-ekstraklasa-czestochowa-kalshi-kxekstraklasa-26-cze |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 13 |
| 2026-04-25 | 14 |
| 2026-05-02 | 19 |
| 2026-05-07 | 40 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Lech Poznan +28pp 28→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Lech Poznan +17pp 56→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Lech Poznan −4pp 32→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Gornik Zabrze −4pp 10→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Gornik Zabrze −3pp 13→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the likelihood that Zaglebie Lubin finishes first in Poland's top football division during the 2026 season. At 16%, the probability reflects the team's historical performance and current competitive position relative to stronger Polish clubs. The main drivers of this probability are Zaglebie's recent league standings, squad composition, and injury status compared to rivals like Legia Warsaw and Cracovia. The probability will shift substantially based on performance in matches from May through the season's conclusion, with playoff or championship outcomes in late 2026 providing the final resolution. Market participants are pricing in moderate odds that account for the competitive depth of the Ekstraklasa while acknowledging Zaglebie's position as a mid-tier contender rather than a favorite.

### Key factors

- Zaglebie's current league position as of May 2026 and point differential versus leading clubs
- Squad depth and key player availability, particularly in defensive and attacking positions
- Head-to-head record and remaining fixtures against primary title contenders
- Historical performance patterns: Zaglebie has not won the Ekstraklasa since 1991
- Coaching staff experience and tactical adjustments made during the season

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ekstraklasa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ekstraklasa

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.