# Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 15 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ekstraklasagame
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.305Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $106

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaglebie Lubin | 17¢ | +1pp | $95 | kalshi | /markets/gornik-zabrze-vs-zaglebie-lubin-winner-zaglebie-lu-kalshi-kxekstraklasagame-26may09gorzag-zag |
| Tie | 18¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/nieciecza-vs-legia-warszawa-winner-tie-kalshi-kxekstraklasagame-26may10nieleg-tie |
| Tie | 24¢ | — | $3 | kalshi | /markets/wisla-plock-vs-motor-lublin-winner-tie-kalshi-kxekstraklasagame-26may10plomot-tie |
| Tie | 23¢ | — | $3 | kalshi | /markets/gliwice-vs-katowice-winner-tie-kalshi-kxekstraklasagame-26may10pglkat-tie |
| Cracovia Krakow | 48¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cracovia-krakow-vs-radomiak-radom-winner-cracovia-kalshi-kxekstraklasagame-26may11crarad-cra |
| Radomiak Radom | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cracovia-krakow-vs-radomiak-radom-winner-radomiak-kalshi-kxekstraklasagame-26may11crarad-rad |
| Tie | 23¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cracovia-krakow-vs-radomiak-radom-winner-tie-kalshi-kxekstraklasagame-26may11crarad-tie |
| Nieciecza | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/nieciecza-vs-legia-warszawa-winner-nieciecza-kalshi-kxekstraklasagame-26may10nieleg-nie |
| Legia Warszawa | 55¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/nieciecza-vs-legia-warszawa-winner-legia-warszawa-kalshi-kxekstraklasagame-26may10nieleg-leg |
| Wisla Plock | 40¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/wisla-plock-vs-motor-lublin-winner-wisla-plock-kalshi-kxekstraklasagame-26may10plomot-plo |
| Motor Lublin | 29¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/wisla-plock-vs-motor-lublin-winner-motor-lublin-kalshi-kxekstraklasagame-26may10plomot-mot |
| Gliwice | 41¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gliwice-vs-katowice-winner-gliwice-kalshi-kxekstraklasagame-26may10pglkat-pgl |
| Katowice | 27¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gliwice-vs-katowice-winner-katowice-kalshi-kxekstraklasagame-26may10pglkat-kat |
| Gornik Zabrze | 56¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gornik-zabrze-vs-zaglebie-lubin-winner-gornik-zabr-kalshi-kxekstraklasagame-26may09gorzag-gor |
| Tie | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gornik-zabrze-vs-zaglebie-lubin-winner-tie-kalshi-kxekstraklasagame-26may09gorzag-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 29 |
| 2026-05-07 | 29 |
| 2026-05-08 | 28 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Zaglebie Lubin will defeat Nieciecza in an upcoming match. The 17% price suggests bookmakers and traders view Zaglebie as the underdog, with stronger probability assigned to either Katowice winning or a draw based on the related contracts. The probability level is driven by relative team strength, recent form, and head-to-head history between these Polish Ekstraklasa opponents. Key uncertainty stems from team lineup changes, injuries to key players, and home-field advantage dynamics. The market will resolve once the match concludes and the final result is recorded. Current trading volume on this specific matchup is minimal ($0 in the past 24 hours), suggesting limited market conviction and the possibility that the probability reflects sparse pricing data rather than robust consensus.

### Key factors

- Zaglebie Lubin's recent league position and points total compared to Nieciecza's current standing in the Polish Ekstraklasa
- Head-to-head historical performance between these two teams, including wins, losses, and goal differential
- Team news including confirmed injuries, suspensions, or tactical changes announced before match day
- Home vs. away status of each team, as one team's home-field advantage typically affects win probability
- Trading volume remains negligible on this specific contract, indicating the 17% price may reflect thin liquidity rather than strong analytical consensus

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ekstraklasagame
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ekstraklasagame

## License

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