# El Ittihad SC El Iskandary vs. Petrojet SC

> El Ittihad SC El Iskandary leads at 40%, runner-up 34% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/el-ittihad-sc-el-iskandary-vs-petrojet-sc
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:05:51.074Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-04

## Headline

- Leader: El Ittihad SC El Iskandary at 40%
- Runner-up: Draw (El Ittihad SC El Iskandary vs. Petrojet SC) at 34%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Ittihad SC El Iskandary | 40¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/el-ittihad-sc-el-iskandary-vs-petrojet-sc-el-ittih-polymarket-0x7228732b6e1acb51096ba9a63d7c11f7e4560702eb43b78f15ca8484138674cf |
| Draw (El Ittihad SC El Iskandary vs. Petrojet SC) | 34¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/el-ittihad-sc-el-iskandary-vs-petrojet-sc-draw-el-polymarket-0xca68e49b966528d50e3ee64244d591f4b06ccff66360e0cfa4922a620466af81 |
| Petrojet SC | 26¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/el-ittihad-sc-el-iskandary-vs-petrojet-sc-petrojet-polymarket-0xd702300ed28436c1a823589429680f4251623a58cda9f961fb0a040eac65c445 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | El Ittihad SC El Iskandary | Draw (El Ittihad SC El Iskandary vs. Petrojet SC) | Petrojet SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 41 | 34 | 25 |
| 2026-05-01 | — | 33 | 26 |
| 2026-05-02 | 41 | 33 | 27 |
| 2026-05-03 | 40 | 33 | — |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 28% probability reflects the likelihood that El Ittihad SC El Iskandary will defeat Petrojet SC in an upcoming Egyptian football match. The prediction aggregates data from multiple prediction markets, with slightly higher confidence at Kalshi (30%) compared to Polymarket (27%). The probability suggests bookmakers view this as a relatively close contest, favoring El Ittihad but leaving meaningful uncertainty. Market resolution will depend on team form, squad availability, and head-to-head dynamics. The lack of recent trading volume across most contracts suggests limited fresh information flowing into these markets, which may reflect the match's timing or general market interest levels in this fixture.

### Key factors

- Current Polymarket pricing on El Ittihad direct victory at 41¢ implies ~41% win probability, higher than the aggregated 28%, indicating internal inconsistency or different contract definitions across venues
- Zero 24-hour trading volume on all listed contracts suggests illiquid markets with potentially stale pricing that may not reflect late-breaking team news or injury updates
- Head-to-head spreads priced across multiple handicap levels (-1.5, -2.5) indicate disagreement among market participants on the true margin of victory
- The 3-percentage-point spread between venues (Kalshi 30% vs Polymarket 27%) is within normal variance but suggests different trader populations weighting available information differently
- Lack of clearly dominant favorite despite El Ittihad pricing suggests both teams have recent form or context that prevents strong consensus

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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