# El Mokawloon El Arab SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 20 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/el-mokawloon-el-arab-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:05:58.450Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-07

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tala'ea El Gaish SC | 41¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-talaea-e-polymarket-0xf309d5ef7bdc3c2cbc081c50a884e957c3d94aaa13b7d0f7d3f235b980b66b6b |
| Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-1.5) | 32¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xcfd8ae93ecfdafad54e0f1ea37dc78d8f07fd74db45a6370d6396a37b8c856c9 |
| Ghazl El Mahalla SC (-1.5) | 33¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x38d77b59a8939f700428b00e675928555c3628f66fe7b86df5717a13cac987c4 |
| O/U 2.5 | 48¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x288ff0e2c8f28d2ce3086cdcf50104581d515384996453e7affbe355cdb23634 |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x7b51f5b1ae95d3ae4b6193060967617edf485cb2b357f723eab19886c6839166 |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xf2f172d3c51f51880b72b4870d410b871c7520e383ea2a035bcedb034dd1fbe5 |
| Both Teams to Score | 52¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x5e259bb37b4c32909df4d0c35554cdd4df86416c9592834bc94d270ad9099efe |
| Both Teams to Score | 43¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/pharco-fc-vs-el-mokawloon-el-arab-sc-more-markets-polymarket-0xeef4d779eea35b7d605912854981926bfc4fcc167509b703c19c31544890eca0 |
| O/U 4.5 | 5¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/pharco-fc-vs-el-mokawloon-el-arab-sc-more-markets-polymarket-0x90b83a69d00315d4ef4f455843af3951a33527566a3cff3594cad53bf25148f0 |
| El Mokawloon El Arab SC | 37¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/pharco-fc-vs-el-mokawloon-el-arab-sc-el-mokawloon-polymarket-0x44181c0a129e74b07292b19525679c9b3165690ad9e7b1e879dd3f603ec44216 |
| Pharco FC | 30¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/pharco-fc-vs-el-mokawloon-el-arab-sc-pharco-fc-polymarket-0x30ab648f6080fba8d42b9ca43a2de669be44a238ff7560d2e0eb90c3bada15fd |
| Draw (Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC) | 31¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-draw-tal-polymarket-0x0fc637c69071f59c1908180636611b8f1e0c772f345f5d862efa6cc8d17a0787 |
| Ghazl El Mahalla SC | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-ghazl-el-polymarket-0x052b58bbdb8ea96833997b2909baff6b82329eae90e9ea459b0259bf4ca7a59e |
| O/U 3.5 | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/pharco-fc-vs-el-mokawloon-el-arab-sc-more-markets-polymarket-0xd79ae9c0b3d5daf1f6f30b688ecd854d696e6c786c8bdf897a90d3e7d0768d45 |
| El Mokawloon El Arab SC (-1.5) | 13¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/pharco-fc-vs-el-mokawloon-el-arab-sc-more-markets-polymarket-0xec25e2201853b63734c990bc9b1a845a3e8c1e3a120adf69f7b039a0953660ac |
| Pharco FC (-2.5) | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/pharco-fc-vs-el-mokawloon-el-arab-sc-more-markets-polymarket-0x85c5f5acf8c9b1429b40774403f153ae81b7fb5734015e7d3b19de52fc76f158 |
| Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) | 32¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xc7227427d717e9b2e1623fe742087682ff01b0cb992c0d39e7226d057067aff4 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xbba7de6218bf80a3f35ab8e20bc25a1ffc79547250260eb453886765e28bc1f0 |
| El Mokawloon El Arab SC (-2.5) | 4¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/pharco-fc-vs-el-mokawloon-el-arab-sc-more-markets-polymarket-0x94b96251df1fb1e599498d85896387f2729ccb4bdaa7fec9193dde2443903ad3 |
| Draw (Pharco FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC) | 34¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/pharco-fc-vs-el-mokawloon-el-arab-sc-draw-pharco-f-polymarket-0x568aa444061267e403f5be9d0bb4999876a3788d1cdb5e4a230f496ac59e4817 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 29 |
| 2026-04-30 | 30 |
| 2026-05-01 | 22 |
| 2026-05-02 | 25 |
| 2026-05-03 | 33 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · O/U 4.5 −5pp 13→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Pharco FC +5pp 24→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · El Mokawloon El Arab SC (-2.5) −5pp 9→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · El Mokawloon El Arab SC (-2.5) −4pp 13→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · Draw (Pharco FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC) +4pp 31→35¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 36% probability reflects market expectations that El Mokawloon El Arab SC will defeat Ghazl El Mahalla SC in an Egyptian football match. The price sits between the frontrunner (36%) and second-place outcome (34%), indicating genuine uncertainty rather than a clear consensus. Market movement would likely depend on team form, injuries to key players, and recent head-to-head records. The underlying contracts show low trading volume, suggesting limited liquidity and fewer active participants pricing this matchup, which typically increases forecast uncertainty. Resolution will occur when the match concludes and the final result is recorded.

### Key factors

- El Mokawloon El Arab SC's recent domestic performance and current league standing relative to Ghazl El Mahalla SC
- Availability and fitness status of key players for both teams ahead of the scheduled fixture
- Historical head-to-head results between these two clubs and goal-scoring patterns
- The low 24-hour trading volume ($0 reported across top contracts) indicates sparse price discovery and may amplify swings from new information
- Whether either team has competing fixtures or fixture congestion that could affect squad selection or player availability

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/el-mokawloon-el-arab-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=el-mokawloon-el-arab-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc

## License

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