# 2026 midterm election odds

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 16% across 16 contracts — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/election-2026
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:11.263Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 16% / Polymarket 13% — 3pp spread
- 24h volume: $903

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 18¢ | +1pp | $561 | polymarket | /markets/republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-ele-polymarket-0xf9b68b99b3ca714f63e49c5a595ade99bf65585e00bfa0e2ebd112cdc090456c |
| Yes | 36¢ | −1pp | $314 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-winning-team-of-the-2026-pro-football-cha-kalshi-kxsuperbowlwhitehouse-26dec31 |
| Texas | 17¢ | ±0 | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-in-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-tx |
| Maine | 5¢ | −1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-maine-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-in-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-me |
| Yes | 46¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-the-2026-senate-elections-in-ge-kalshi-kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03 |
| Georgia | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-i-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-ga |
| Yes | 52¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-independent-or-third-party-candidate-win-kalshi-kxusindependentcongress-26nov03 |
| New Hampshire | 5¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-hampshire-have-the-smallest-margin-of-vic-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-nh |
| Michigan | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-mi |
| North Carolina | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-north-carolina-have-the-smallest-margin-of-vi-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-nc |
| Iowa | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iowa-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-in-2-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-ia |
| Ohio | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ohio-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-in-2-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-oh |
| Alaska | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaska-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-in-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-ak |
| Nebraska | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nebraska-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-ne |
| Minnesota | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-mn |
| 52 | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-ele-polymarket-0x4b6d354831374f40d664728aa1cf4093e58f782c25ba82b782d0e08c06270486 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 26 |
| 2026-05-25 | 17 |
| 2026-06-01 | 25 |
| 2026-06-08 | 36 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · Yes −14pp 41→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Yes +7pp 27→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Yes −7pp 53→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Yes −3pp 58→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · New Hampshire −3pp 8→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Prediction markets currently suggest a 58% probability that an independent or third-party candidate will win a seat in the U.S. House or Senate during the 2026 midterm elections. Conversely, markets place the odds of the Republican Party losing their House majority before the 2026 midterms at only 20%. Regarding party control, there is a 46% likelihood that Democrats will win the Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine.

### Key factors

- 58% independent candidate victory
- 46% Democratic Senate seat sweep
- 20% GOP House majority loss
- Political shift outlook

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/election-2026
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=election-2026
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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